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KRDU / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
88%
AIFS
86%
EPS
65%
HRES
20%
ICON
19%
Consensus
60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 53.6¢Risks 53.65u
VS
ICONNO 46.4¢Risks 46.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.35u · ICON −46.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 79.7% · 2026-10-20T04:04:11+00:00AIFS Single: 79.7% · 2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00AIFS Single: 79.7% · 2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00AIFS Single: 79.7% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00AIFS Single: 79.7% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00AIFS Single: 85.5% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00AIFS Single: 85.5% · 2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00AIFS Single: 85.5% · 2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00AIFS Single: 85.5% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00AIFS Single: 85.5% · 2026-10-20T10:53:12+00:00AIFS Single: 85.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00AIFS Single: 85.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00AIFS Single: 85.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.5% · 2026-10-20T04:04:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.5% · 2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.5% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.5% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.5% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.5% · 2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.5% · 2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.5% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.6% · 2026-10-20T10:53:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.0% · 2026-10-20T04:04:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.0% · 2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.1% · 2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.1% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.1% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.1% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.1% · 2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.1% · 2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.1% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00IFS HRES: 14.0% · 2026-10-20T04:04:11+00:00IFS HRES: 14.0% · 2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00IFS HRES: 14.0% · 2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00IFS HRES: 14.0% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00IFS HRES: 14.0% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00IFS HRES: 14.0% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00IFS HRES: 14.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00IFS HRES: 14.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00IFS HRES: 14.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00IFS HRES: 20.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:12+00:00IFS HRES: 20.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00IFS HRES: 20.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS HRES: 20.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-10-20T04:04:11+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00ICON: 20.0% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00ICON: 19.0% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00ICON: 19.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00ICON: 19.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00ICON: 19.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00ICON: 19.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:12+00:00ICON: 19.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00ICON: 19.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00ICON: 19.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:0010-20 04:0410-20 08:3710-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:04:11+00:0079.7%63.5%84.0%14.0%20.0%
2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:0079.7%63.5%84.0%14.0%20.0%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:0079.7%63.5%87.1%14.0%20.0%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:0079.7%63.5%87.1%14.0%20.0%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:0079.7%63.5%87.1%14.0%20.0%
2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:0085.5%63.5%87.1%14.0%19.0%
2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:0085.5%63.5%87.1%14.0%19.0%
2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:0085.5%63.5%87.1%14.0%19.0%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:0085.5%63.5%87.1%14.0%19.0%
2026-10-20T10:53:12+00:0085.5%64.6%88.3%20.3%19.0%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:0085.5%64.6%88.3%20.3%19.0%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:0085.5%64.6%88.3%20.3%19.0%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:0085.5%64.6%88.3%20.3%19.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 288%71.5°F3.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single86%72.0°F4.3°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble65%68.7°F3.2°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast55%68.0°F3.9°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
National Blend55%68.0°F4.4°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS HRES20%63.8°F4.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON19%64.0°F4.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261023-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 68°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗