KRDU / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

86%

65%

20%

19%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 53.6¢Risks 53.65u

ICONNO 46.4¢Risks 46.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.35u · ICON −46.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	84.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	79.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	92.8%	—	—	—	—	80.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	61.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	94.9%	—	59.9%	—	—	74.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	94.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	61.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	84.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	2.9%	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	82.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	2.7%	—	—	64.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	23.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	17.6%	21.8%	—	—	38.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	56.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	72.5%	75.9%	18.4%	—	55.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	69.6%	79.5%	69.0%	60.8%	—	43.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	69.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	61.3%	37.2%	73.6%	35.1%	—	36.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	63.8%	—	—	31.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	40.5%	71.9%	26.1%	—	34.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	54.9%	0.9%	64.4%	—	—	26.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	55.0%	27.9%	72.8%	32.2%	—	27.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	55.1%	19.0%	64.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	19.6%	64.6%	23.4%	—	19.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	12.1%	61.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	9.0%	61.8%	17.2%	—	8.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	50.9%	19.6%	65.7%	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	15.3%	60.6%	27.1%	51.9%	12.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	62.8%	—	—	9.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	88%	71.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	86%	72.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	65%	68.7°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	68.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	63.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	19%	64.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261023-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 68°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗