KRDU / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

50%

29%

27%

11%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 35.6¢Risks 35.60u

HRESNO 64.4¢Risks 64.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +64.40u · HRES −64.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:55:36+00:00	48.5%	41.5%	45.7%	13.4%	33.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:27+00:00	48.5%	36.9%	45.7%	13.4%	33.7%
2026-10-18T16:26:50+00:00	48.5%	36.9%	45.7%	13.4%	33.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	48.5%	36.9%	48.3%	13.4%	33.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:19+00:00	48.5%	36.9%	48.3%	13.4%	33.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	48.5%	36.9%	48.3%	13.4%	33.7%
2026-10-18T19:27:54+00:00	41.2%	36.9%	48.3%	29.8%	46.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	41.2%	36.9%	48.3%	29.8%	46.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	41.2%	36.9%	48.3%	29.8%	46.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:23+00:00	41.2%	36.9%	48.3%	29.8%	46.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	41.2%	36.9%	48.3%	29.8%	46.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	41.2%	36.9%	49.1%	29.8%	46.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	41.2%	36.9%	49.1%	29.8%	46.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	41.2%	36.9%	49.1%	29.8%	46.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:30+00:00	44.1%	36.9%	49.1%	29.8%	46.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:44+00:00	44.1%	36.9%	49.1%	29.8%	46.7%
2026-10-19T02:59:53+00:00	44.1%	36.9%	49.1%	29.8%	46.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	44.1%	36.9%	49.1%	29.8%	46.7%
2026-10-19T04:30:31+00:00	44.1%	36.9%	49.1%	29.8%	46.7%
2026-10-19T05:16:57+00:00	44.1%	36.9%	49.1%	29.8%	46.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	44.1%	36.9%	49.1%	29.8%	46.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	44.1%	36.9%	49.1%	29.8%	46.7%
2026-10-19T07:32:48+00:00	50.8%	36.9%	49.1%	15.4%	30.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	50.8%	36.9%	49.1%	15.4%	30.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	50.8%	36.9%	49.1%	15.4%	30.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00	50.8%	36.9%	49.1%	15.4%	30.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:00+00:00	50.8%	36.9%	49.1%	15.4%	30.1%
2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:00	50.8%	28.8%	67.8%	15.4%	30.1%
2026-10-19T12:06:29+00:00	50.8%	28.8%	67.8%	15.4%	30.1%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	50.8%	28.8%	67.8%	15.4%	30.1%
2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00	45.2%	28.8%	67.8%	15.4%	30.1%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	45.2%	28.8%	67.8%	15.4%	30.0%
2026-10-19T15:13:21+00:00	45.2%	27.3%	67.8%	15.4%	30.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:06+00:00	45.2%	27.3%	67.8%	15.4%	30.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	45.2%	27.3%	67.8%	15.4%	30.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	45.2%	27.3%	60.6%	15.4%	30.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	45.2%	27.3%	60.6%	15.4%	30.0%
2026-10-19T18:59:52+00:00	45.2%	27.3%	60.6%	15.4%	30.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:26+00:00	47.6%	27.3%	60.6%	10.6%	28.9%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	47.6%	27.3%	60.6%	10.6%	28.9%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	47.6%	27.3%	60.6%	10.6%	28.9%
2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00	47.6%	27.3%	60.6%	10.6%	28.9%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	47.6%	27.3%	60.6%	10.6%	28.9%
2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:00	47.6%	27.3%	60.6%	10.6%	28.9%
2026-10-20T00:16:42+00:00	47.6%	27.3%	60.6%	10.6%	28.9%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	47.6%	27.3%	60.6%	10.6%	28.9%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	50.0%	27.3%	60.6%	10.6%	28.9%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	50.0%	27.3%	60.6%	10.6%	28.9%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	50.0%	27.3%	60.6%	10.6%	28.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	61%	68.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	50%	67.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	67.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	29%	64.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	27%	64.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	11%	60.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261024-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 68°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗