KRDU / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

50%

29%

27%

11%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 35.6¢Risks 35.60u

HRESNO 64.4¢Risks 64.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +64.40u · HRES −64.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	—	—	—	86.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	97.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	98.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	97.4%	—	—	—	—	80.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	87.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	30.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	—	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	87.6%	—	18.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	22.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	—	—	56.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	63.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	64.0%	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	55.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	8.8%	48.0%	—	—	30.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	43.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	6.5%	62.4%	15.3%	—	23.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	56.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	19.9%	10.9%	59.4%	28.5%	—	19.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	20.5%	61.3%	62.7%	—	22.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	37.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	11.9%	40.5%	24.8%	—	16.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	19.5%	0.0%	37.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	21.3%	10.1%	38.5%	27.2%	—	8.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	16.2%	41.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	19.6%	45.6%	47.4%	62.9%	15.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	49.1%	—	—	11.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	61%	68.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	50%	67.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	67.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	29%	64.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	27%	64.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	11%	60.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261024-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 68°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗