KRIC / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

39%

39%

32%

30%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 60.1¢Risks 60.10u

AIFSNO 39.9¢Risks 39.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +39.90u · AIFS −39.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-10T22:26:43+00:00	26.5%	84.4%	50.8%	64.2%	90.0%
2026-10-10T23:13:29+00:00	26.5%	84.4%	48.4%	64.2%	90.0%
2026-10-10T23:58:37+00:00	26.5%	84.4%	48.4%	64.2%	90.0%
2026-10-11T00:43:44+00:00	26.5%	84.4%	48.4%	64.2%	90.0%
2026-10-11T01:28:59+00:00	31.4%	84.4%	48.4%	64.2%	90.0%
2026-10-11T02:14:10+00:00	31.4%	84.4%	48.4%	64.2%	90.0%
2026-10-11T02:59:18+00:00	31.4%	84.4%	48.4%	64.2%	90.0%
2026-10-11T03:44:37+00:00	31.4%	84.4%	48.4%	64.2%	90.0%
2026-10-11T04:30:38+00:00	31.4%	84.4%	48.4%	64.2%	90.0%
2026-10-11T05:16:01+00:00	31.4%	84.4%	41.2%	64.2%	90.0%
2026-10-11T06:01:14+00:00	31.4%	84.4%	41.2%	64.2%	90.0%
2026-10-11T06:46:24+00:00	31.4%	84.4%	41.2%	64.2%	90.0%
2026-10-11T07:31:37+00:00	37.4%	84.4%	41.2%	65.9%	90.0%
2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00	37.4%	84.4%	41.2%	65.9%	90.0%
2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:00	37.4%	84.4%	41.2%	65.9%	90.0%
2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00	37.4%	84.4%	41.2%	65.9%	90.0%
2026-10-11T10:33:32+00:00	37.4%	84.4%	41.2%	65.9%	90.0%
2026-10-11T11:19:42+00:00	37.4%	90.5%	46.5%	65.9%	90.0%
2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:00	37.4%	90.5%	46.5%	65.9%	90.0%
2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00	37.4%	90.5%	46.5%	65.9%	90.0%
2026-10-11T13:35:37+00:00	27.9%	90.5%	46.5%	65.9%	90.0%
2026-10-11T14:26:11+00:00	27.3%	90.3%	46.5%	66.0%	90.0%
2026-10-11T15:11:27+00:00	27.3%	90.3%	46.5%	66.0%	90.0%
2026-10-11T15:57:17+00:00	27.3%	90.3%	46.5%	66.0%	90.0%
2026-10-11T16:42:24+00:00	27.3%	90.3%	46.5%	66.0%	90.0%
2026-10-11T17:27:59+00:00	27.3%	90.3%	43.9%	66.0%	90.0%
2026-10-11T18:13:07+00:00	27.3%	90.3%	43.9%	66.0%	90.0%
2026-10-11T18:58:17+00:00	27.3%	90.3%	43.9%	66.0%	90.0%
2026-10-11T19:43:29+00:00	26.6%	90.3%	43.9%	32.4%	39.3%
2026-10-11T20:28:38+00:00	26.6%	90.3%	43.9%	32.4%	39.3%
2026-10-11T21:13:49+00:00	26.6%	90.3%	43.9%	32.4%	39.3%
2026-10-11T21:58:58+00:00	26.6%	90.3%	43.9%	32.4%	39.3%
2026-10-11T22:44:09+00:00	26.6%	90.3%	43.9%	32.4%	39.3%
2026-10-11T23:29:27+00:00	26.7%	90.3%	38.8%	32.4%	39.3%
2026-10-12T00:14:42+00:00	26.7%	90.3%	38.8%	32.4%	39.3%
2026-10-12T01:00:08+00:00	26.7%	90.3%	38.8%	32.4%	39.3%
2026-10-12T01:45:19+00:00	29.9%	90.3%	38.8%	32.4%	39.3%
2026-10-12T02:30:27+00:00	29.9%	90.3%	38.8%	32.4%	39.3%
2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:00	29.9%	90.3%	38.8%	32.4%	39.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	90%	75.7°F	7.9°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.8154
NWS forecast	53%	66.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 14:00	0.2852
National Blend	48%	65.0°F	8.9°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2285
ICON	39%	63.6°F	7.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.1544
WeatherNext 2	39%	64.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.1505
IFS HRES	32%	62.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.1050
AIFS Single	30%	62.7°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.0894

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261017-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 10 · 22:26 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 66°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗