KRIC / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

39%

39%

32%

30%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 60.1¢Risks 60.10u

AIFSNO 39.9¢Risks 39.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +39.90u · AIFS −39.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	33.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	86.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	66.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	—	—	—	63.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	88.9%	—	59.3%	—	—	75.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	81.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	98.7%	—	—	83.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	98.7%	—	72.0%	—	—	77.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	62.6%	—	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	69.4%	—	—	64.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	96.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	94.8%	100.0%	—	—	60.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	96.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	92.3%	91.8%	93.1%	—	65.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	90.4%	24.9%	—	67.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	99.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	15.1%	57.6%	25.8%	—	46.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	51.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	80.5%	77.0%	51.6%	—	35.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	35.6%	91.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	48.3%	78.1%	40.9%	—	31.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	51.7%	51.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	93.2%	29.1%	26.2%	—	28.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	19.6%	89.6%	27.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	26.6%	86.7%	84.5%	29.7%	—	42.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	23.8%	99.4%	100.0%	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	99.7%	99.9%	98.1%	—	91.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	23.4%	99.9%	99.8%	—	—	90.8%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	29.4%	99.7%	99.8%	98.9%	—	95.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	99.8%	99.8%	—	—	89.9%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	99.7%	99.8%	60.8%	100.0%	91.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	99.8%	99.9%	38.9%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	99.9%	99.9%	33.1%	—	75.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	100.0%	100.0%	16.7%	—	59.5%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	100.0%	100.0%	13.7%	100.0%	50.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	100.0%	100.0%	14.3%	—	47.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	100.0%	100.0%	11.3%	100.0%	46.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	100.0%	100.0%	7.6%	—	35.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	100.0%	100.0%	10.8%	100.0%	29.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	4.8%	1.5%	2.4%	—	0.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	90%	75.7°F	7.9°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.8154
NWS forecast	53%	66.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 14:00	0.2852
National Blend	48%	65.0°F	8.9°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2285
ICON	39%	63.6°F	7.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.1544
WeatherNext 2	39%	64.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.1505
IFS HRES	32%	62.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.1050
AIFS Single	30%	62.7°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.0894

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261017-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 10 · 22:26 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 66°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗