KRIC / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

95%

89%

75%

55%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 75.4¢Risks 75.40u

ICONNO 24.6¢Risks 24.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +24.60u · ICON −24.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T11:19:42+00:00	50.7%	84.1%	68.0%	94.8%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:00	50.7%	84.1%	68.0%	94.8%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00	50.7%	84.1%	68.0%	94.8%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:37+00:00	67.3%	84.1%	68.0%	94.8%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:11+00:00	67.3%	84.1%	67.9%	94.8%	—
2026-10-11T15:11:27+00:00	67.3%	83.1%	67.9%	94.8%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:17+00:00	67.3%	83.1%	67.9%	94.8%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:24+00:00	67.3%	83.1%	67.9%	94.8%	—
2026-10-11T17:27:59+00:00	67.3%	83.1%	69.4%	94.8%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:07+00:00	67.3%	83.1%	69.4%	94.8%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:17+00:00	67.3%	83.1%	69.4%	94.8%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:29+00:00	92.6%	83.1%	69.4%	89.4%	79.5%
2026-10-11T20:28:38+00:00	92.6%	83.1%	69.4%	89.4%	79.5%
2026-10-11T21:13:49+00:00	92.6%	83.1%	69.4%	89.4%	79.5%
2026-10-11T21:58:58+00:00	92.6%	83.1%	69.4%	89.4%	79.5%
2026-10-11T22:44:09+00:00	92.6%	83.1%	69.4%	89.4%	79.5%
2026-10-11T23:29:27+00:00	92.6%	83.1%	91.5%	89.4%	79.4%
2026-10-12T00:14:42+00:00	92.6%	83.1%	91.5%	89.4%	79.4%
2026-10-12T01:00:08+00:00	92.6%	83.1%	91.5%	89.4%	79.4%
2026-10-12T01:45:19+00:00	96.7%	83.1%	91.5%	89.4%	79.4%
2026-10-12T02:30:27+00:00	96.7%	83.1%	91.5%	89.4%	79.4%
2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:00	96.7%	83.1%	91.5%	89.4%	79.4%
2026-10-12T04:01:05+00:00	96.7%	83.1%	91.5%	89.4%	79.4%
2026-10-12T04:47:13+00:00	96.7%	83.1%	91.5%	89.4%	79.4%
2026-10-12T05:32:19+00:00	96.7%	83.1%	93.8%	89.4%	79.4%
2026-10-12T06:17:27+00:00	96.7%	83.1%	93.8%	89.4%	79.4%
2026-10-12T07:02:33+00:00	96.7%	83.1%	93.8%	89.4%	79.4%
2026-10-12T07:47:48+00:00	95.3%	83.1%	93.8%	95.5%	93.3%
2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:00	95.3%	83.1%	93.8%	95.5%	93.3%
2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00	95.3%	83.1%	93.8%	95.5%	93.3%
2026-10-12T10:04:57+00:00	95.3%	83.1%	93.8%	95.5%	93.3%
2026-10-12T10:50:07+00:00	95.3%	83.1%	93.8%	95.5%	93.3%
2026-10-12T11:35:22+00:00	95.3%	83.1%	97.8%	95.5%	93.3%
2026-10-12T12:20:46+00:00	95.3%	91.8%	97.8%	95.5%	93.3%
2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:00	95.3%	91.8%	97.8%	95.5%	93.3%
2026-10-12T13:51:02+00:00	90.4%	91.8%	97.8%	95.5%	93.3%
2026-10-12T14:41:15+00:00	90.3%	91.5%	97.8%	95.5%	93.3%
2026-10-16T15:05:11+00:00	95.0%	61.9%	92.7%	52.9%	64.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	95.0%	61.9%	92.7%	52.9%	64.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:07+00:00	95.0%	61.9%	92.7%	52.9%	64.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	95.0%	61.9%	96.9%	52.9%	64.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	95.0%	61.9%	96.9%	52.9%	64.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	95.0%	61.9%	96.9%	52.9%	64.3%
2026-10-16T19:36:53+00:00	93.3%	61.9%	96.9%	52.9%	58.9%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	93.3%	61.9%	96.9%	52.9%	58.9%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	93.3%	61.9%	96.9%	52.9%	58.9%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	93.3%	61.9%	96.9%	52.9%	58.9%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	93.3%	61.9%	96.9%	72.9%	58.9%
2026-10-16T23:23:19+00:00	93.3%	61.9%	96.2%	72.9%	58.9%
2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00	93.3%	61.9%	96.2%	72.9%	58.9%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	93.3%	61.9%	96.2%	72.9%	58.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	94.2%	61.9%	96.2%	72.9%	58.9%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	94.2%	61.9%	96.2%	72.9%	58.9%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	94.2%	61.9%	96.2%	72.9%	58.9%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	94.2%	61.9%	96.2%	72.9%	58.9%
2026-10-17T04:41:02+00:00	94.2%	61.9%	96.2%	72.9%	58.9%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00	94.2%	61.9%	96.9%	72.9%	58.9%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	94.2%	61.9%	96.9%	72.9%	58.9%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	94.2%	61.9%	96.9%	72.9%	58.9%
2026-10-17T07:44:02+00:00	95.3%	61.9%	96.9%	74.9%	54.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	95.3%	61.9%	96.9%	74.9%	54.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:28+00:00	95.3%	61.9%	96.9%	74.9%	54.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	95.3%	61.9%	96.9%	74.9%	54.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	95.3%	61.9%	96.9%	74.9%	54.5%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	95.3%	89.8%	96.3%	74.9%	54.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	95.3%	89.8%	96.3%	74.9%	54.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	95.3%	89.8%	96.3%	74.9%	54.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00	95.0%	89.8%	96.3%	74.9%	54.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	95.1%	89.3%	96.3%	74.9%	54.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	63.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0014
AIFS Single	95%	65.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0024
IFS Ensemble	89%	62.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0114
IFS HRES	75%	61.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0630
National Blend	68%	60.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.1056
NWS forecast	56%	59.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1901
ICON	55%	58.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.2070

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261018-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 11 · 11:19 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 59°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗