KRIC / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

95%

89%

75%

55%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 75.4¢Risks 75.40u

ICONNO 24.6¢Risks 24.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +24.60u · ICON −24.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	93.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	94.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	95.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	89.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	91.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	82.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	—	—	—	84.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	87.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	—	—	—	82.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	75.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	83.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	—	—	—	79.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	47.6%	—	—	84.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	91.2%	—	—	72.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	36.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	32.4%	—	—	73.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	45.4%	—	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	10.8%	—	—	59.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	7.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	78.6%	73.7%	20.9%	27.5%	—	73.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	88.9%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	83.9%	90.0%	54.4%	45.6%	—	79.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	66.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	78.4%	96.4%	63.5%	73.6%	—	77.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	57.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	71.9%	90.3%	73.2%	67.7%	—	71.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	68.1%	21.2%	86.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	70.0%	95.1%	89.5%	56.6%	—	67.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	84.8%	92.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	53.5%	75.9%	89.9%	51.7%	—	42.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	64.9%	66.6%	91.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	73.4%	49.1%	89.0%	28.9%	—	40.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	78.3%	62.1%	84.1%	—	—	37.9%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	70.4%	56.8%	76.0%	24.0%	—	48.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	86.0%	66.5%	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	77.3%	67.9%	65.1%	63.1%	—	56.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	75.5%	65.5%	48.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	72.7%	66.9%	28.2%	65.9%	—	32.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	81.0%	62.2%	18.3%	0.2%	—	51.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	75.8%	62.6%	41.9%	68.0%	—	62.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	80.1%	68.5%	48.8%	66.4%	—	64.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	81.8%	70.2%	57.4%	66.9%	35.4%	63.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	81.8%	69.8%	60.2%	67.5%	—	66.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	80.9%	69.3%	61.9%	65.7%	50.0%	63.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	82.7%	70.0%	62.3%	67.5%	—	66.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	75.5%	76.6%	60.1%	57.2%	73.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	79.8%	75.2%	81.9%	54.5%	—	63.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	84.8%	73.7%	84.8%	62.4%	54.7%	69.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	83.0%	86.9%	67.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	63.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0014
AIFS Single	95%	65.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0024
IFS Ensemble	89%	62.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0114
IFS HRES	75%	61.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0630
National Blend	68%	60.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.1056
NWS forecast	56%	59.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1901
ICON	55%	58.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.2070

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261018-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 11 · 11:19 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 59°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗