KRIC / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

91%

85%

64%

41%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 67.7¢Risks 67.65u

ICONNO 32.4¢Risks 32.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +32.35u · ICON −32.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:31:37+00:00	43.6%	89.7%	87.9%	92.9%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00	43.6%	89.7%	87.9%	92.9%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:00	43.6%	89.7%	87.9%	92.9%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00	43.6%	89.7%	87.9%	92.9%	—
2026-10-11T10:33:32+00:00	43.6%	89.7%	87.9%	92.9%	—
2026-10-17T15:24:28+00:00	91.9%	85.5%	92.6%	65.7%	43.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	91.9%	85.5%	92.6%	65.7%	43.2%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	91.9%	85.5%	93.0%	65.7%	43.2%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	91.9%	85.5%	93.0%	65.7%	43.2%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	91.9%	85.5%	93.0%	65.7%	43.2%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	91.9%	85.5%	93.0%	65.7%	43.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	90.7%	85.5%	93.0%	63.7%	41.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	90.7%	85.5%	93.0%	63.7%	41.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	90.7%	85.5%	93.0%	63.7%	41.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:51+00:00	90.7%	85.5%	93.0%	63.7%	41.0%
2026-10-17T22:56:59+00:00	90.7%	85.5%	93.0%	63.7%	41.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	90.7%	85.4%	93.0%	63.7%	41.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	90.7%	85.4%	93.0%	63.7%	41.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:50+00:00	90.7%	85.4%	93.0%	63.7%	41.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	91.1%	85.4%	93.0%	63.7%	41.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	91.1%	85.4%	93.0%	63.7%	41.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	91.1%	85.4%	93.0%	63.7%	41.0%
2026-10-18T04:13:43+00:00	91.1%	85.4%	93.0%	63.7%	41.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	91.1%	85.4%	94.3%	63.7%	41.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	91.1%	85.4%	94.3%	63.7%	41.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	91.1%	85.4%	94.3%	63.7%	41.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	91.1%	85.4%	94.3%	63.7%	41.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	64.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0032
AIFS Single	91%	64.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0079
IFS Ensemble	85%	62.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0213
National Blend	75%	61.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0635
IFS HRES	64%	60.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1318
NWS forecast	59%	60.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
ICON	41%	58.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.3481

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261018-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 60°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗