KRIC / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

91%

85%

64%

41%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 67.7¢Risks 67.65u

ICONNO 32.4¢Risks 32.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +32.35u · ICON −32.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	91.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	96.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	96.3%	—	—	—	—	92.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	93.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	86.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	89.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	97.8%	—	—	—	—	80.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	84.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—	79.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	75.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	41.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	41.6%	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	88.4%	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	31.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	26.8%	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	5.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	8.0%	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	73.1%	67.7%	16.2%	21.9%	—	67.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	85.2%	—	40.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	79.0%	86.5%	47.1%	38.5%	—	73.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	94.6%	56.1%	67.0%	—	71.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	78.9%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	64.8%	86.4%	66.3%	60.3%	—	64.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	15.8%	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	62.3%	92.6%	85.2%	48.3%	—	59.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	47.4%	79.2%	88.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	44.8%	68.6%	85.4%	43.0%	—	33.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	56.3%	58.0%	87.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	65.3%	40.0%	84.0%	21.6%	—	32.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	52.8%	77.6%	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	47.1%	67.8%	17.1%	—	38.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	57.0%	73.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	68.8%	58.2%	55.1%	53.1%	—	45.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	55.3%	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	56.5%	19.8%	55.5%	—	23.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	72.4%	51.1%	11.8%	0.1%	—	40.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	65.9%	51.2%	31.0%	57.0%	—	51.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	70.7%	57.2%	37.0%	54.8%	—	52.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	72.4%	58.7%	45.0%	55.0%	24.6%	51.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	72.0%	57.7%	47.4%	55.1%	—	53.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	70.5%	56.7%	48.7%	52.7%	36.8%	50.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	72.4%	56.9%	48.6%	54.2%	—	52.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	75.5%	62.8%	64.2%	45.7%	42.8%	60.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	61.9%	70.2%	39.5%	—	48.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	73.7%	59.4%	73.7%	46.8%	39.1%	54.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	70.5%	75.9%	51.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	64.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0032
AIFS Single	91%	64.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0079
IFS Ensemble	85%	62.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0213
National Blend	75%	61.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0635
IFS HRES	64%	60.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1318
NWS forecast	59%	60.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
ICON	41%	58.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.3481

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261018-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 60°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗