KRIC / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

89%

69%

64%

33%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 63.1¢Risks 63.05u

ICONNO 36.9¢Risks 36.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +36.95u · ICON −36.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T15:24:28+00:00	92.7%	78.7%	91.7%	67.0%	53.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	92.7%	78.7%	91.7%	67.0%	53.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	92.7%	78.7%	93.5%	67.0%	53.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	92.7%	78.7%	93.5%	67.0%	53.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	92.7%	78.7%	93.5%	67.0%	53.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	92.7%	78.7%	93.5%	67.0%	53.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	87.1%	78.7%	93.5%	70.4%	37.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	87.1%	78.7%	93.5%	70.4%	37.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	87.1%	78.7%	93.5%	70.4%	37.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:51+00:00	87.1%	78.7%	93.5%	70.4%	37.8%
2026-10-17T22:56:59+00:00	87.1%	78.7%	92.2%	70.4%	37.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	87.1%	78.7%	92.2%	70.4%	37.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	87.1%	78.7%	92.2%	70.4%	37.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:50+00:00	87.1%	78.7%	92.2%	70.4%	37.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	86.6%	78.7%	92.2%	70.4%	37.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	86.6%	78.7%	92.2%	70.4%	37.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	86.6%	78.7%	92.2%	70.4%	37.8%
2026-10-18T04:13:43+00:00	86.6%	78.7%	92.2%	70.4%	37.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	86.6%	78.7%	92.7%	70.4%	37.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	86.6%	78.7%	92.7%	70.4%	37.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	86.6%	78.7%	92.7%	70.4%	37.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	86.6%	78.7%	92.7%	70.4%	37.8%
2026-10-18T08:00:54+00:00	88.8%	78.7%	92.7%	69.5%	42.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	88.8%	78.7%	92.7%	69.5%	42.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	88.8%	78.7%	92.7%	69.5%	42.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	88.8%	78.7%	92.7%	69.5%	42.1%
2026-10-18T11:02:35+00:00	88.8%	82.0%	91.5%	69.5%	42.1%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	88.8%	82.0%	91.5%	69.5%	42.1%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	88.8%	82.0%	91.5%	69.5%	42.1%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	88.8%	82.0%	91.5%	69.5%	42.1%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	86.2%	81.6%	91.5%	69.6%	42.2%
2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:00	86.2%	81.6%	91.5%	69.6%	42.2%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	86.2%	68.9%	91.5%	69.6%	42.2%
2026-10-18T16:26:48+00:00	86.2%	68.9%	91.5%	69.6%	42.2%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	86.2%	68.9%	91.0%	69.6%	42.2%
2026-10-18T17:57:17+00:00	86.2%	68.9%	91.0%	69.6%	42.2%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	86.2%	68.9%	91.0%	69.6%	42.2%
2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00	88.4%	68.9%	91.0%	63.7%	32.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	88.4%	68.9%	91.0%	63.7%	32.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	88.4%	68.9%	91.0%	63.7%	32.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	88.4%	68.9%	91.0%	63.7%	32.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	88.4%	68.9%	91.0%	63.7%	32.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:38+00:00	88.4%	68.9%	91.5%	63.7%	32.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	88.4%	68.9%	91.5%	63.7%	32.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00	88.4%	68.9%	91.5%	63.7%	32.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:29+00:00	89.3%	68.9%	91.5%	63.7%	32.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:43+00:00	89.3%	68.9%	91.5%	63.7%	32.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:53+00:00	89.3%	68.9%	91.5%	63.7%	32.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	89.3%	68.9%	91.5%	63.7%	32.6%
2026-10-19T04:30:25+00:00	89.3%	68.9%	91.5%	63.7%	32.6%
2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:00	89.3%	68.9%	93.5%	63.7%	32.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	89.3%	68.9%	93.5%	63.7%	32.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	89.3%	68.9%	93.5%	63.7%	32.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	67.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	89%	68.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	65.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	69%	65.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	64.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	33%	61.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261019-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 64°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗