KRIC / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

89%

69%

64%

33%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 63.1¢Risks 63.05u

ICONNO 36.9¢Risks 36.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +36.95u · ICON −36.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	98.9%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	40.2%	—	—	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	74.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	53.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—	73.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	1.5%	—	—	75.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	62.4%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	66.2%	—	27.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	89.9%	—	46.8%	—	—	79.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	83.7%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	59.4%	8.2%	83.3%	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	73.7%	52.1%	84.2%	2.1%	—	75.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	84.7%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	84.4%	88.7%	80.1%	78.5%	—	74.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	93.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	80.5%	93.7%	92.7%	62.7%	—	73.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	—	93.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	66.3%	88.9%	92.8%	31.6%	—	54.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	67.4%	1.8%	92.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	50.0%	89.5%	1.8%	—	40.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	50.0%	88.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	26.9%	47.4%	80.4%	0.1%	—	46.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	77.8%	65.8%	88.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	60.0%	68.6%	54.6%	—	37.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	59.4%	50.0%	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	30.4%	58.7%	27.9%	47.1%	—	12.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	36.3%	59.9%	0.1%	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	53.1%	39.8%	8.6%	47.9%	—	44.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	66.5%	44.7%	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	56.5%	46.7%	38.2%	0.0%	51.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	75.1%	48.9%	56.7%	0.0%	—	59.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	40.8%	51.2%	51.2%	38.5%	54.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	60.7%	61.9%	46.4%	42.8%	—	53.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	64.6%	57.4%	59.9%	42.6%	0.0%	53.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	47.4%	60.2%	38.5%	—	42.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	65.7%	46.0%	60.6%	33.1%	36.8%	47.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	68.8%	63.7%	61.0%	36.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	75.5%	60.1%	64.2%	40.0%	58.6%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	67.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	89%	68.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	65.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	69%	65.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	64.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	33%	61.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261019-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 64°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗