KRIC / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

54%

32%

30%

20%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 46.6¢Risks 46.55u

HRESNO 53.4¢Risks 53.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +53.45u · HRES −53.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T15:41:20+00:00	73.3%	49.0%	76.4%	66.0%	81.1%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	73.3%	49.0%	76.4%	66.0%	81.1%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	73.3%	49.0%	77.8%	66.0%	81.1%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	73.3%	49.0%	77.8%	66.0%	81.1%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	73.3%	49.0%	77.8%	66.0%	81.1%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	76.9%	49.0%	77.8%	66.0%	86.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	76.9%	49.0%	77.8%	66.0%	86.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:41+00:00	76.9%	49.0%	77.8%	66.0%	86.0%
2026-10-13T21:43:01+00:00	76.9%	49.0%	77.8%	66.0%	86.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	76.9%	49.0%	77.8%	65.4%	86.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:32+00:00	76.9%	49.0%	83.7%	65.4%	85.9%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	76.9%	49.0%	83.7%	65.4%	85.9%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	76.9%	49.0%	83.7%	65.4%	85.9%
2026-10-14T01:29:07+00:00	64.0%	49.0%	83.7%	65.4%	85.9%
2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00	64.0%	49.0%	83.7%	65.4%	85.9%
2026-10-14T02:59:31+00:00	64.0%	49.0%	83.7%	65.4%	85.9%
2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00	64.0%	49.0%	83.7%	65.4%	85.9%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	64.0%	49.0%	83.7%	65.4%	85.9%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	64.0%	49.0%	83.7%	65.4%	85.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:00	64.0%	49.0%	83.7%	65.4%	85.9%
2026-10-14T06:46:11+00:00	64.0%	49.0%	83.7%	65.4%	85.9%
2026-10-14T07:31:25+00:00	61.9%	49.0%	83.7%	65.4%	78.8%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	61.9%	49.0%	83.7%	65.4%	78.8%
2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00	61.9%	49.0%	83.7%	65.4%	78.8%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	61.9%	49.0%	83.7%	65.4%	78.8%
2026-10-14T10:32:15+00:00	61.9%	49.0%	83.7%	43.8%	78.8%
2026-10-14T11:20:37+00:00	61.9%	34.1%	60.5%	43.8%	78.8%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	61.9%	34.1%	60.5%	43.8%	78.8%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	61.9%	34.1%	60.5%	43.8%	78.8%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	64.2%	34.1%	60.5%	43.8%	78.8%
2026-10-14T14:26:48+00:00	64.1%	34.1%	60.6%	43.8%	78.6%
2026-10-14T15:12:03+00:00	64.1%	36.4%	60.6%	43.8%	78.6%
2026-10-14T15:57:52+00:00	64.1%	36.4%	60.6%	43.8%	78.6%
2026-10-14T16:43:02+00:00	64.1%	36.4%	60.6%	43.8%	78.6%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	64.1%	36.4%	48.1%	43.8%	78.6%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	64.1%	36.4%	48.1%	43.8%	78.6%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	64.1%	36.4%	48.1%	43.8%	78.6%
2026-10-14T19:43:32+00:00	58.8%	36.4%	48.1%	4.3%	40.7%
2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00	58.8%	36.4%	48.1%	4.3%	40.7%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	58.8%	36.4%	48.1%	4.3%	40.7%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	58.8%	36.4%	48.1%	4.3%	40.7%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	58.8%	36.4%	48.1%	4.3%	40.7%
2026-10-14T23:29:31+00:00	58.8%	35.5%	42.3%	4.3%	40.7%
2026-10-15T00:14:39+00:00	58.8%	35.5%	42.3%	4.3%	40.7%
2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:00	58.8%	35.5%	42.3%	4.3%	40.7%
2026-10-15T01:46:16+00:00	65.6%	35.5%	42.3%	4.3%	40.7%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	65.6%	35.5%	42.3%	4.3%	40.7%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	65.6%	35.5%	42.3%	4.3%	40.7%
2026-10-15T04:01:52+00:00	65.6%	35.5%	42.3%	4.3%	40.7%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	65.6%	35.5%	42.3%	4.3%	40.7%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	65.6%	35.5%	64.2%	4.3%	40.7%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	65.6%	35.5%	64.2%	4.3%	40.7%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	65.6%	35.5%	64.2%	4.3%	40.7%
2026-10-15T07:49:04+00:00	27.1%	35.5%	64.2%	19.5%	29.5%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	27.1%	35.5%	64.2%	19.5%	29.5%
2026-10-15T09:21:36+00:00	27.1%	35.5%	64.2%	19.5%	29.5%
2026-10-15T10:07:21+00:00	27.1%	35.5%	64.2%	19.5%	29.5%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	27.1%	35.5%	64.2%	19.5%	29.5%
2026-10-15T11:39:07+00:00	27.1%	35.5%	54.3%	19.5%	29.5%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	27.1%	32.1%	54.3%	19.5%	29.5%
2026-10-15T13:10:08+00:00	27.1%	32.1%	54.3%	19.5%	29.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00	73.6%	32.2%	54.3%	19.5%	29.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	73.6%	32.2%	54.3%	19.5%	29.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	74%	70.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	54%	67.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	40%	66.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	32%	65.1°F	5.2°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	30%	64.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	63.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261019-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗