KRIC / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

54%

32%

30%

20%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 46.6¢Risks 46.55u

HRESNO 53.4¢Risks 53.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +53.45u · HRES −53.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	—	—	—	51.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	0.3%	—	—	53.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	56.1%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	—	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	23.1%	—	—	56.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	62.4%	—	58.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	1.9%	61.3%	—	—	58.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	63.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	25.7%	61.8%	0.3%	—	49.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	57.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	60.8%	68.3%	54.4%	52.2%	—	47.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	77.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	53.8%	77.8%	75.5%	33.0%	—	43.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	75.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	35.2%	66.3%	74.5%	10.0%	—	24.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	0.2%	73.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	29.3%	20.1%	66.2%	0.2%	—	13.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	35.8%	19.6%	62.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	17.2%	49.1%	0.0%	—	16.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	44.6%	31.0%	61.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	25.1%	33.0%	20.9%	—	10.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	23.8%	17.1%	13.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	22.5%	5.9%	14.7%	—	1.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	22.6%	0.0%	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	17.0%	9.8%	0.8%	13.9%	—	12.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	26.2%	11.6%	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	17.6%	11.9%	8.1%	0.0%	14.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	12.3%	16.8%	0.0%	—	18.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	19.1%	8.1%	12.7%	12.7%	7.2%	14.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	18.3%	9.7%	8.2%	—	13.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	19.1%	14.4%	15.9%	7.5%	0.0%	12.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	8.7%	15.0%	5.6%	—	6.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	7.4%	14.1%	3.7%	4.6%	7.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	14.7%	13.2%	4.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	22.2%	11.5%	13.8%	4.4%	10.8%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	74%	70.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	54%	67.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	40%	66.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	32%	65.1°F	5.2°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	30%	64.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	63.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261019-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗