KRIC / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 13 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

69%

67%

60%

39%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 58.0¢Risks 58.00u

EPSNO 42.0¢Risks 42.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +42.00u · EPS −42.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T11:35:22+00:00	50.7%	34.0%	64.2%	72.0%	18.9%
2026-10-12T12:20:46+00:00	50.7%	54.1%	64.2%	72.0%	18.9%
2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:00	50.7%	54.1%	64.2%	72.0%	18.9%
2026-10-12T13:51:02+00:00	65.3%	54.1%	64.2%	72.0%	18.9%
2026-10-12T14:41:15+00:00	65.2%	54.1%	64.1%	72.0%	19.0%
2026-10-12T15:26:44+00:00	65.2%	54.1%	64.1%	72.0%	19.0%
2026-10-12T16:12:54+00:00	65.2%	55.0%	64.1%	72.0%	19.0%
2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00	65.2%	55.0%	74.0%	72.0%	19.0%
2026-10-12T17:43:11+00:00	65.2%	55.0%	74.0%	72.0%	19.0%
2026-10-12T18:28:18+00:00	65.2%	55.0%	74.0%	72.0%	19.0%
2026-10-12T19:13:24+00:00	65.2%	55.0%	74.0%	72.0%	19.0%
2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00	64.6%	55.0%	74.0%	67.6%	49.2%
2026-10-12T20:43:41+00:00	64.6%	55.0%	74.0%	67.6%	49.2%
2026-10-12T21:28:48+00:00	64.6%	55.0%	74.0%	67.6%	49.2%
2026-10-12T22:13:55+00:00	64.6%	55.0%	74.0%	67.6%	49.2%
2026-10-12T22:59:07+00:00	64.6%	55.0%	81.7%	67.6%	49.2%
2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00	64.6%	55.0%	81.7%	67.6%	49.2%
2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00	64.6%	55.0%	81.7%	67.6%	49.2%
2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00	64.6%	55.0%	81.7%	67.6%	49.2%
2026-10-13T01:59:45+00:00	77.3%	55.0%	81.7%	67.6%	49.2%
2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00	77.3%	55.0%	81.7%	67.6%	49.2%
2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00	77.3%	55.0%	81.7%	67.6%	49.2%
2026-10-13T04:15:20+00:00	77.3%	55.0%	81.7%	67.6%	49.2%
2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00	77.3%	55.0%	80.1%	67.6%	49.2%
2026-10-13T05:46:50+00:00	77.3%	55.0%	80.1%	67.6%	49.2%
2026-10-13T06:32:04+00:00	77.3%	55.0%	80.1%	67.6%	49.2%
2026-10-13T07:17:16+00:00	77.3%	55.0%	80.1%	67.6%	49.2%
2026-10-13T08:02:45+00:00	76.9%	55.0%	80.1%	60.2%	76.6%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00	76.9%	55.0%	80.1%	60.2%	76.6%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00	76.9%	55.0%	80.1%	60.2%	76.6%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	76.9%	55.0%	80.1%	60.2%	76.6%
2026-10-13T11:05:10+00:00	76.9%	39.0%	69.3%	60.2%	76.6%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	76.9%	39.0%	69.3%	60.2%	76.6%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	76.9%	39.0%	69.3%	60.2%	76.6%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	76.9%	39.0%	69.3%	60.2%	76.6%
2026-10-13T14:06:00+00:00	66.8%	39.0%	69.2%	60.2%	77.0%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	66.8%	39.0%	69.2%	60.2%	77.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	77%	73.7°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	69%	70.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	67%	70.8°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	60%	70.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	69.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	69.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	39%	67.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261019-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 69°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗