KRIC / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 69°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

69%

67%

60%

39%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 58.0¢Risks 58.00u

EPSNO 42.0¢Risks 42.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +42.00u · EPS −42.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	94.9%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	47.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	45.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	47.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	8.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	18.5%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	52.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	1.3%	54.7%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	56.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	20.4%	54.9%	0.2%	—	42.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	53.6%	61.6%	47.1%	44.9%	—	39.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	71.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	46.2%	71.7%	69.1%	26.4%	—	36.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	69.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	28.1%	58.7%	67.7%	6.9%	—	18.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	0.1%	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	22.5%	14.8%	58.3%	0.1%	—	9.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	14.2%	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	12.2%	40.5%	0.0%	—	11.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	23.5%	52.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	18.4%	25.1%	14.9%	—	7.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	17.1%	11.8%	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	15.9%	3.5%	9.8%	—	0.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	15.8%	0.0%	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	6.1%	0.4%	9.0%	—	7.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	18.3%	18.3%	7.2%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	11.4%	7.3%	4.7%	0.0%	9.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	23.1%	7.5%	10.7%	0.0%	—	11.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	12.1%	4.5%	7.6%	7.6%	4.0%	9.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	11.4%	5.5%	4.5%	—	7.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	8.5%	9.5%	4.0%	0.0%	7.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	4.6%	8.7%	2.8%	—	3.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	3.7%	7.9%	1.7%	2.2%	4.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	8.1%	7.1%	1.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	13.0%	5.9%	7.3%	1.9%	5.5%	3.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	4.1%	6.5%	1.0%	—	1.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	4.4%	7.1%	0.9%	3.4%	1.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	10.7%	8.6%	2.8%	—	4.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	77%	73.7°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.5929
WeatherNext 2	69%	70.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.4789
AIFS Single	67%	70.8°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.4462
IFS HRES	60%	70.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.3624
National Blend	55%	69.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.2970
NWS forecast	53%	69.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 03:00	0.2852
IFS Ensemble	39%	67.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.1521

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261019-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 69°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗