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KRIC / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST96%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
>99%
AIFS
99%
EPS
94%
ICON
90%
HRES
84%
Consensus
96%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 92.0¢Risks 46.00u
VS
HRESNO 8.0¢Risks 4.00u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +4.00u · HRES −4.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 98.7% · 2026-10-17T04:41:04+00:00AIFS Single: 98.7% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00AIFS Single: 98.7% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00AIFS Single: 98.7% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00AIFS Single: 99.0% · 2026-10-17T07:44:02+00:00AIFS Single: 99.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00AIFS Single: 99.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:28+00:00AIFS Single: 99.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00AIFS Single: 99.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00AIFS Single: 99.0% · 2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00AIFS Single: 99.0% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00AIFS Single: 99.0% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00AIFS Single: 98.9% · 2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00AIFS Single: 98.9% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.4% · 2026-10-17T04:41:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.4% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.4% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.4% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.4% · 2026-10-17T07:44:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.4% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.4% · 2026-10-17T09:16:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.4% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.4% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.0% · 2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.0% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.0% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.0% · 2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.4% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.4% · 2026-10-17T04:41:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T07:44:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T09:16:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00IFS HRES: 82.1% · 2026-10-17T04:41:04+00:00IFS HRES: 82.1% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00IFS HRES: 82.1% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00IFS HRES: 82.1% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00IFS HRES: 84.3% · 2026-10-17T07:44:02+00:00IFS HRES: 84.3% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00IFS HRES: 84.3% · 2026-10-17T09:16:28+00:00IFS HRES: 84.3% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00IFS HRES: 84.3% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00IFS HRES: 84.3% · 2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00IFS HRES: 84.3% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00IFS HRES: 84.3% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00IFS HRES: 84.3% · 2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00IFS HRES: 84.3% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00ICON: 89.9% · 2026-10-17T04:41:04+00:00ICON: 89.9% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00ICON: 89.9% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00ICON: 89.9% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00ICON: 90.5% · 2026-10-17T07:44:02+00:00ICON: 90.5% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00ICON: 90.5% · 2026-10-17T09:16:28+00:00ICON: 90.5% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00ICON: 90.5% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00ICON: 90.5% · 2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00ICON: 90.5% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00ICON: 90.5% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00ICON: 90.5% · 2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00ICON: 90.5% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:0010-17 04:4110-17 10:0110-17 14:39
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T04:41:04+00:0098.7%42.4%99.4%82.1%89.9%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:0098.7%42.4%99.7%82.1%89.9%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:0098.7%42.4%99.7%82.1%89.9%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:0098.7%42.4%99.7%82.1%89.9%
2026-10-17T07:44:02+00:0099.0%42.4%99.7%84.3%90.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:0099.0%42.4%99.7%84.3%90.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:28+00:0099.0%42.4%99.7%84.3%90.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:0099.0%42.4%99.7%84.3%90.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:0099.0%42.4%99.7%84.3%90.5%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:0099.0%95.0%99.7%84.3%90.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:0099.0%95.0%99.7%84.3%90.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:0099.0%95.0%99.7%84.3%90.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:0098.9%95.0%99.7%84.3%90.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:0098.9%94.4%99.7%84.3%90.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2>99%74.7°F3.4°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
AIFS Single99%75.3°F4.3°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble94%70.1°F2.9°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
ICON90%70.7°F4.0°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES84%70.0°F4.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend78%69.0°F4.4°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
NWS forecast55%66.0°F3.9°F2026-10-17 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261020-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 66°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗