KRIC / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST96%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

99%

94%

90%

84%

Consensus

96%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 92.0¢Risks 46.00u

HRESNO 8.0¢Risks 4.00u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +4.00u · HRES −4.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	—	—	—	74.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	78.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	72.3%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	84.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	77.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	82.3%	—	61.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	—	—	—	82.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	88.4%	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	92.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	92.7%	—	—	79.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	92.6%	—	89.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	87.9%	20.3%	89.5%	—	—	82.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	95.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	91.3%	92.3%	87.0%	1.7%	—	82.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	84.3%	—	86.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	84.4%	92.1%	85.6%	33.7%	—	68.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	94.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	85.8%	85.4%	93.7%	13.8%	—	58.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	92.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.4%	81.6%	74.5%	46.0%	—	62.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	0.5%	85.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	91.3%	78.1%	52.5%	—	52.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	81.0%	51.7%	79.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	90.6%	76.6%	48.2%	—	24.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	87.0%	67.4%	—	—	42.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	92.1%	85.1%	79.1%	74.1%	—	71.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	94.1%	87.8%	81.7%	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	93.2%	86.4%	80.3%	73.7%	—	77.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	94.0%	84.8%	83.0%	—	—	75.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	91.4%	76.5%	84.9%	63.1%	0.3%	73.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	92.0%	83.1%	84.4%	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	93.4%	89.1%	86.3%	78.7%	—	71.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	92.5%	81.0%	87.1%	0.0%	—	73.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	92.8%	83.2%	90.0%	66.9%	0.0%	71.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	94.2%	90.8%	87.4%	69.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	95.7%	91.0%	91.5%	72.4%	75.4%	77.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	94.7%	89.7%	90.2%	69.8%	—	72.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	95.7%	93.0%	93.0%	69.3%	74.9%	73.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	97.7%	97.0%	94.6%	77.9%	—	80.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	97.9%	98.9%	96.8%	81.8%	84.6%	84.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	97.8%	—	97.3%	77.6%	—	77.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	74.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	99%	75.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	94%	70.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	90%	70.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	84%	70.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	78%	69.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261020-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 66°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗