KRIC / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

75%

73%

58%

49%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 69.3¢Risks 69.35u

EPSNO 30.6¢Risks 30.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +30.65u · EPS −30.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T11:05:10+00:00	79.9%	48.0%	82.3%	67.6%	25.9%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	79.9%	48.0%	82.3%	67.6%	25.9%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	79.9%	48.0%	82.3%	67.6%	25.9%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	79.9%	48.0%	82.3%	67.6%	25.9%
2026-10-13T14:06:00+00:00	75.1%	48.0%	82.2%	67.6%	26.0%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	75.1%	49.0%	82.2%	67.6%	26.0%
2026-10-13T15:41:21+00:00	75.1%	49.0%	82.2%	67.6%	26.0%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	75.1%	49.0%	82.2%	67.6%	26.0%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	75.1%	49.0%	77.7%	67.6%	26.0%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	75.1%	49.0%	77.7%	67.6%	26.0%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	75.1%	49.0%	77.7%	67.6%	26.0%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	82.7%	49.0%	77.7%	67.6%	74.7%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	82.7%	49.0%	77.7%	67.6%	74.7%
2026-10-13T20:57:41+00:00	82.7%	49.0%	77.7%	67.6%	74.7%
2026-10-13T21:43:01+00:00	82.7%	49.0%	77.7%	67.6%	74.7%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	82.7%	49.0%	77.7%	58.1%	74.7%
2026-10-13T23:13:32+00:00	82.7%	49.0%	89.7%	58.1%	74.7%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	82.7%	49.0%	89.7%	58.1%	74.7%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	82.7%	49.0%	89.7%	58.1%	74.7%
2026-10-14T01:29:07+00:00	72.7%	49.0%	89.7%	58.1%	74.7%
2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00	72.7%	49.0%	89.7%	58.1%	74.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	77.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
ICON	75%	78.1°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	73%	74.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	72.8°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	72.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	71.4°F	3.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261020-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 72°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗