KRIC / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

75%

73%

58%

49%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 69.3¢Risks 69.35u

EPSNO 30.6¢Risks 30.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +30.65u · EPS −30.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	55.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	68.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	45.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	27.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	79.0%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	77.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	60.0%	—	—	54.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	67.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	65.8%	—	68.2%	—	—	43.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	59.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	56.1%	3.2%	59.4%	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	74.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	64.4%	52.8%	0.1%	—	45.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	46.4%	62.3%	48.5%	6.4%	—	26.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	46.9%	46.2%	64.9%	1.3%	—	17.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	61.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	38.2%	29.5%	9.7%	—	18.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	33.4%	0.0%	42.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	54.2%	31.5%	11.6%	—	11.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	34.2%	10.7%	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	50.0%	27.7%	8.6%	—	2.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	15.5%	41.1%	18.4%	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	50.9%	36.4%	28.2%	23.0%	—	20.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	55.7%	39.7%	30.1%	—	—	25.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	51.0%	35.7%	27.1%	20.3%	—	24.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	52.0%	31.7%	29.1%	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	42.8%	20.4%	30.3%	11.3%	0.0%	17.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	26.2%	27.9%	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	34.1%	29.2%	19.8%	—	14.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	20.6%	28.6%	0.0%	—	14.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	21.5%	32.0%	9.4%	0.0%	11.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	31.4%	25.3%	9.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	43.8%	29.8%	30.9%	10.0%	11.8%	13.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	37.3%	24.8%	25.9%	7.7%	—	8.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	38.1%	29.5%	29.5%	6.5%	8.9%	8.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	41.7%	31.2%	9.2%	—	11.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	54.3%	37.2%	10.2%	12.2%	12.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	36.6%	6.5%	—	6.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	77.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
ICON	75%	78.1°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	73%	74.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	72.8°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	72.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	71.4°F	3.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261020-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 72°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗