KRIC / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 06:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

21%

11%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 11.3¢Risks 5.67u

EPSNO 88.7¢Risks 44.33u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +44.33u · EPS −44.33u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:02:46+00:00	27.9%	3.8%	31.3%	21.1%	7.3%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	27.9%	3.8%	31.3%	21.1%	7.3%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00	27.9%	3.8%	31.3%	21.1%	7.3%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	27.9%	3.8%	31.3%	21.1%	7.3%
2026-10-13T11:05:12+00:00	27.9%	1.8%	24.7%	21.1%	7.3%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	27.9%	1.8%	24.7%	21.1%	7.3%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	27.9%	1.8%	24.7%	21.1%	7.3%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	27.9%	1.8%	24.7%	21.1%	7.3%
2026-10-13T14:06:00+00:00	22.7%	1.8%	24.7%	21.1%	7.4%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	22.7%	1.7%	24.7%	21.1%	7.4%
2026-10-13T15:41:21+00:00	22.7%	1.7%	24.7%	21.1%	7.4%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	22.7%	1.7%	24.7%	21.1%	7.4%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	22.7%	1.7%	20.0%	21.1%	7.4%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	22.7%	1.7%	20.0%	21.1%	7.4%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	22.7%	1.7%	20.0%	21.1%	7.4%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	31.5%	1.7%	20.0%	21.1%	44.4%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	31.5%	1.7%	20.0%	21.1%	44.4%
2026-10-13T20:57:41+00:00	31.5%	1.7%	20.0%	21.1%	44.4%
2026-10-13T21:43:01+00:00	31.5%	1.7%	20.0%	21.1%	44.4%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	31.5%	1.7%	20.0%	14.5%	44.4%
2026-10-13T23:13:32+00:00	31.5%	1.7%	36.6%	14.5%	44.4%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	31.5%	1.7%	36.6%	14.5%	44.4%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	31.5%	1.7%	36.6%	14.5%	44.4%
2026-10-14T01:29:07+00:00	20.7%	1.7%	36.6%	14.5%	44.4%
2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00	20.7%	1.7%	36.6%	14.5%	44.4%
2026-10-14T02:59:31+00:00	20.7%	1.7%	36.6%	14.5%	44.4%
2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00	20.7%	1.7%	36.6%	14.5%	44.4%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	20.7%	1.7%	36.6%	14.5%	44.4%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	20.7%	1.7%	36.6%	14.5%	44.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:00	20.7%	1.7%	36.6%	14.5%	44.4%
2026-10-14T06:46:11+00:00	20.7%	1.7%	36.6%	14.5%	44.4%
2026-10-14T07:31:25+00:00	17.8%	1.7%	36.6%	14.5%	35.1%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	17.8%	1.7%	36.6%	14.5%	35.1%
2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00	17.8%	1.7%	36.6%	14.5%	35.1%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	17.8%	1.7%	36.6%	14.5%	35.1%
2026-10-14T10:32:15+00:00	17.8%	1.7%	36.6%	6.4%	35.1%
2026-10-14T11:20:37+00:00	17.8%	0.7%	5.1%	6.4%	35.1%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	17.8%	0.7%	5.1%	6.4%	35.1%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	17.8%	0.7%	5.1%	6.4%	35.1%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	10.3%	0.7%	5.1%	6.4%	35.1%
2026-10-14T14:26:48+00:00	11.0%	0.7%	5.4%	6.4%	35.1%
2026-10-14T15:12:04+00:00	11.0%	0.7%	5.4%	6.4%	35.1%
2026-10-14T15:57:52+00:00	11.0%	0.7%	5.4%	6.4%	35.1%
2026-10-14T16:43:02+00:00	11.0%	0.7%	5.4%	6.4%	35.1%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	11.0%	0.7%	3.4%	6.4%	35.1%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	11.0%	0.7%	3.4%	6.4%	35.1%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	11.0%	0.7%	3.4%	6.4%	35.1%
2026-10-14T19:43:32+00:00	19.2%	0.7%	3.4%	5.0%	24.4%
2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00	19.2%	0.7%	3.4%	5.0%	24.4%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	19.2%	0.7%	3.4%	5.0%	24.4%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	19.2%	0.7%	3.4%	5.0%	24.4%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	19.2%	0.7%	3.4%	5.0%	24.4%
2026-10-14T23:29:31+00:00	19.2%	0.7%	5.2%	5.0%	24.4%
2026-10-15T00:14:39+00:00	19.2%	0.7%	5.2%	5.0%	24.4%
2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:00	19.2%	0.7%	5.2%	5.0%	24.4%
2026-10-15T01:46:16+00:00	17.2%	0.7%	5.2%	5.0%	24.4%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	17.2%	0.7%	5.2%	5.0%	24.4%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	17.2%	0.7%	5.2%	5.0%	24.4%
2026-10-15T04:01:52+00:00	17.2%	0.7%	5.2%	5.0%	24.4%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	17.2%	0.7%	5.2%	5.0%	24.4%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	17.2%	0.7%	11.9%	5.0%	24.4%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	17.2%	0.7%	11.9%	5.0%	24.4%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	17.2%	0.7%	11.9%	5.0%	24.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00	9.5%	1.4%	4.0%	5.0%	12.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	9.5%	1.4%	4.0%	5.0%	12.8%
2026-10-15T15:33:46+00:00	9.5%	1.6%	4.0%	5.0%	12.8%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	9.5%	1.6%	4.0%	5.0%	12.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	9.5%	1.6%	9.4%	5.0%	12.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:35+00:00	9.5%	1.6%	9.4%	5.0%	12.8%
2026-10-15T18:35:57+00:00	9.5%	1.6%	9.4%	5.0%	12.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	9.5%	1.6%	9.4%	5.0%	12.8%
2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00	10.6%	1.6%	4.7%	4.8%	21.1%
2026-10-16T02:08:03+00:00	10.6%	1.6%	4.7%	4.8%	21.1%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00	10.6%	1.6%	4.7%	4.8%	21.1%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	10.6%	1.6%	4.7%	4.8%	21.1%
2026-10-16T04:23:54+00:00	10.6%	1.6%	4.7%	4.8%	21.1%
2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00	10.6%	1.6%	4.0%	4.8%	21.1%
2026-10-16T05:55:49+00:00	10.6%	1.6%	4.0%	4.8%	21.1%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	10.6%	1.6%	4.0%	4.8%	21.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	21%	74.7°F	6.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	73.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	69.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	72.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	3%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	68.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261020-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Richmond runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗