KRIC / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 06:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

21%

11%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 11.3¢Risks 5.67u

EPSNO 88.7¢Risks 44.33u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +44.33u · EPS −44.33u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	10.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	—	—	—	16.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	15.7%	—	—	12.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	20.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	20.2%	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	13.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	0.1%	13.2%	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	23.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	14.9%	9.0%	0.0%	—	6.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	7.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	12.4%	6.6%	0.1%	—	1.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	14.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	5.2%	12.5%	0.0%	—	0.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	10.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.9%	1.6%	0.2%	—	0.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	0.0%	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	5.8%	1.6%	0.2%	—	0.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.1%	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.9%	0.9%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	2.1%	0.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	1.4%	0.8%	0.5%	—	0.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	1.5%	0.8%	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	1.0%	0.5%	0.3%	—	0.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	0.7%	0.5%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.2%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.3%	0.3%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	21%	74.7°F	6.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	73.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	69.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	72.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	3%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	68.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261020-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Richmond runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗