KRIC / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

57%

54%

40%

18%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 38.0¢Risks 38.00u

HRESNO 62.0¢Risks 62.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +62.00u · HRES −62.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:15+00:00	82.3%	66.3%	87.1%	48.7%	40.5%
2026-10-14T11:20:37+00:00	82.3%	38.2%	68.5%	48.7%	40.5%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	82.3%	38.2%	68.5%	48.7%	40.5%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	82.3%	38.2%	68.5%	48.7%	40.5%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	68.5%	38.2%	68.5%	48.7%	40.5%
2026-10-14T14:26:48+00:00	68.5%	38.2%	68.4%	48.7%	40.9%
2026-10-14T15:12:04+00:00	68.5%	40.1%	68.4%	48.7%	40.9%
2026-10-14T15:57:52+00:00	68.5%	40.1%	68.4%	48.7%	40.9%
2026-10-14T16:43:02+00:00	68.5%	40.1%	68.4%	48.7%	40.9%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	68.5%	40.1%	57.9%	48.7%	40.9%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	68.5%	40.1%	57.9%	48.7%	40.9%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	68.5%	40.1%	57.9%	48.7%	40.9%
2026-10-14T19:43:32+00:00	61.2%	40.1%	57.9%	18.4%	57.6%
2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00	61.2%	40.1%	57.9%	18.4%	57.6%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	61.2%	40.1%	57.9%	18.4%	57.6%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	61.2%	40.1%	57.9%	18.4%	57.6%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	61.2%	40.1%	57.9%	18.4%	57.6%
2026-10-14T23:29:31+00:00	61.2%	40.1%	54.0%	18.4%	57.6%
2026-10-15T00:14:39+00:00	61.2%	40.1%	54.0%	18.4%	57.6%
2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:00	61.2%	40.1%	54.0%	18.4%	57.6%
2026-10-15T01:46:16+00:00	57.1%	40.1%	54.0%	18.4%	57.6%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	57.1%	40.1%	54.0%	18.4%	57.6%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	57.1%	40.1%	54.0%	18.4%	57.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	58%	73.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	57%	72.5°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	72.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	54%	72.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	70.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	65.8°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261021-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 72°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗