KRIC / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

57%

54%

40%

18%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 38.0¢Risks 38.00u

HRESNO 62.0¢Risks 62.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +62.00u · HRES −62.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	25.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	—	—	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	14.5%	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	55.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	—	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	4.5%	—	—	48.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	61.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	65.2%	—	72.7%	—	—	53.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	73.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	59.4%	12.1%	68.2%	—	—	33.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.3%	31.7%	51.4%	1.4%	—	20.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	55.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	1.5%	24.3%	10.6%	—	23.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	42.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	35.8%	22.2%	26.4%	—	20.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	46.8%	14.9%	21.8%	—	4.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.8%	6.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	24.5%	7.1%	11.2%	—	10.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	12.8%	11.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	19.0%	8.6%	7.7%	—	6.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	1.3%	12.5%	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	9.4%	0.8%	11.5%	3.9%	—	3.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	7.0%	7.4%	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	10.7%	10.2%	5.1%	—	2.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	0.8%	9.2%	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	9.0%	9.8%	1.1%	—	1.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	12.1%	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	9.9%	11.9%	5.3%	2.3%	—	2.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	9.2%	4.2%	0.0%	—	1.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	5.7%	4.5%	0.5%	0.0%	1.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	7.8%	4.0%	0.5%	—	1.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	8.9%	4.6%	1.1%	1.4%	1.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	5.3%	0.6%	—	0.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	58%	73.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	57%	72.5°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	72.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	54%	72.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	70.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	65.8°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261021-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 72°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗