KRIC / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 15 · 07:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

27%

12%

11%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 14.1¢Risks 14.10u

EPSNO 85.9¢Risks 85.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +85.90u · EPS −85.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:16+00:00	30.9%	1.5%	36.2%	9.8%	14.7%
2026-10-14T11:20:37+00:00	30.9%	1.1%	13.0%	9.8%	14.7%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	30.9%	1.1%	13.0%	9.8%	14.7%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	30.9%	1.1%	13.0%	9.8%	14.7%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	17.3%	1.1%	13.0%	9.8%	14.7%
2026-10-14T14:26:48+00:00	17.3%	1.1%	13.2%	9.8%	15.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:04+00:00	17.3%	1.2%	13.2%	9.8%	15.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:52+00:00	17.3%	1.2%	13.2%	9.8%	15.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:02+00:00	17.3%	1.2%	13.2%	9.8%	15.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	17.3%	1.2%	8.1%	9.8%	15.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	17.3%	1.2%	8.1%	9.8%	15.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	17.3%	1.2%	8.1%	9.8%	15.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:32+00:00	12.7%	1.2%	8.1%	1.5%	27.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00	12.7%	1.2%	8.1%	1.5%	27.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	12.7%	1.2%	8.1%	1.5%	27.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	12.7%	1.2%	8.1%	1.5%	27.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	12.7%	1.2%	8.1%	1.5%	27.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:31+00:00	12.7%	1.2%	6.7%	1.5%	27.0%
2026-10-15T00:14:39+00:00	12.7%	1.2%	6.7%	1.5%	27.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:00	12.7%	1.2%	6.7%	1.5%	27.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:16+00:00	10.6%	1.2%	6.7%	1.5%	27.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	10.6%	1.2%	6.7%	1.5%	27.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	10.6%	1.2%	6.7%	1.5%	27.0%
2026-10-15T04:01:52+00:00	10.6%	1.2%	6.7%	1.5%	27.0%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	10.6%	1.2%	6.7%	1.5%	27.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	10.6%	1.2%	11.9%	1.5%	27.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	10.6%	1.2%	11.9%	1.5%	27.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	10.6%	1.2%	11.9%	1.5%	27.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	27%	73.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	12%	73.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	72.5°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	71.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	65.8°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	1%	70.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	70.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261021-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Richmond runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗