KRIC / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 15 · 07:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

27%

12%

11%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 14.1¢Risks 14.10u

EPSNO 85.9¢Risks 85.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +85.90u · EPS −85.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	—	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	13.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	1.3%	—	—	11.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	7.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	0.1%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	24.1%	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	24.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	0.6%	18.9%	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	17.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	3.0%	8.5%	0.0%	—	1.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.5%	0.3%	—	1.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	4.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.9%	1.1%	1.5%	—	0.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	4.7%	0.4%	0.9%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.9%	0.1%	0.2%	—	0.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.1%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.0%	0.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	27%	73.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	12%	73.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	72.5°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	71.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	65.8°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	1%	70.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	70.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261021-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Richmond runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗