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KRIC / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
99%
AIFS
98%
ICON
92%
EPS
79%
HRES
70%
Consensus
89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 84.2¢Risks 84.20u
VS
HRESNO 15.8¢Risks 15.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +15.80u · HRES −15.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 71.7% · 2026-10-17T04:41:05+00:00AIFS Single: 71.7% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00AIFS Single: 71.7% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00AIFS Single: 71.7% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00AIFS Single: 86.6% · 2026-10-17T07:44:02+00:00AIFS Single: 86.6% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00AIFS Single: 86.6% · 2026-10-17T09:16:28+00:00AIFS Single: 86.6% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00AIFS Single: 86.6% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00AIFS Single: 86.6% · 2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00AIFS Single: 86.6% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00AIFS Single: 86.6% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00AIFS Single: 97.6% · 2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00AIFS Single: 97.6% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.9% · 2026-10-17T04:41:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.9% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.9% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.9% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.9% · 2026-10-17T07:44:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.9% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.9% · 2026-10-17T09:16:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.9% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.9% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.3% · 2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.3% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.3% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.3% · 2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.3% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.0% · 2026-10-17T04:41:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T07:44:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T09:16:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00IFS HRES: 70.2% · 2026-10-17T04:41:05+00:00IFS HRES: 70.2% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00IFS HRES: 70.2% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00IFS HRES: 70.2% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00IFS HRES: 69.8% · 2026-10-17T07:44:02+00:00IFS HRES: 69.8% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00IFS HRES: 69.8% · 2026-10-17T09:16:28+00:00IFS HRES: 69.8% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00IFS HRES: 69.8% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00IFS HRES: 69.8% · 2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00IFS HRES: 69.8% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00IFS HRES: 69.8% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00IFS HRES: 69.8% · 2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00IFS HRES: 69.8% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00ICON: 80.8% · 2026-10-17T04:41:05+00:00ICON: 80.8% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00ICON: 80.8% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00ICON: 80.8% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00ICON: 92.1% · 2026-10-17T07:44:02+00:00ICON: 92.1% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00ICON: 92.1% · 2026-10-17T09:16:28+00:00ICON: 92.1% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00ICON: 92.1% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00ICON: 92.1% · 2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00ICON: 92.1% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00ICON: 92.1% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00ICON: 92.1% · 2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00ICON: 91.8% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:0010-17 04:4110-17 10:0110-17 14:39
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T04:41:05+00:0071.7%64.9%98.0%70.2%80.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:0071.7%64.9%97.8%70.2%80.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:0071.7%64.9%97.8%70.2%80.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:0071.7%64.9%97.8%70.2%80.8%
2026-10-17T07:44:02+00:0086.6%64.9%97.8%69.8%92.1%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:0086.6%64.9%97.8%69.8%92.1%
2026-10-17T09:16:28+00:0086.6%64.9%97.8%69.8%92.1%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:0086.6%64.9%97.8%69.8%92.1%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:0086.6%64.9%97.8%69.8%92.1%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:0086.6%79.3%98.6%69.8%92.1%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:0086.6%79.3%98.6%69.8%92.1%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:0086.6%79.3%98.6%69.8%92.1%
2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:0097.6%79.3%98.6%69.8%92.1%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:0097.6%79.3%98.6%69.8%91.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 299%72.5°F4.1°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
AIFS Single98%73.3°F5.0°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
ICON92%72.0°F6.1°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble79%66.6°F3.8°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend71%66.0°F4.4°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
IFS HRES70%66.5°F5.8°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%64.0°F5.2°F2026-10-17 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261022-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 64°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗