KRIC / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

98%

92%

79%

70%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 84.2¢Risks 84.20u

HRESNO 15.8¢Risks 15.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +15.80u · HRES −15.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	89.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	88.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	73.1%	—	—	—	—	87.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	—	—	—	88.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	92.2%	—	38.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	88.4%	—	—	—	—	83.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	97.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	89.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	93.8%	—	—	—	—	90.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	97.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	98.0%	—	—	85.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	96.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	91.7%	—	—	73.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	69.1%	—	91.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	43.3%	15.5%	73.5%	—	—	72.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	88.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	28.1%	82.5%	75.9%	19.4%	—	70.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	31.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	92.6%	10.9%	62.9%	—	42.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	26.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	21.1%	68.4%	16.4%	70.4%	—	50.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	43.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	87.7%	66.3%	69.2%	—	54.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	89.8%	30.4%	76.3%	—	—	52.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	88.4%	81.6%	84.3%	66.2%	—	59.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	90.5%	74.7%	76.0%	—	—	66.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	91.0%	88.2%	85.4%	73.1%	—	65.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	90.0%	86.0%	91.2%	—	—	67.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	89.8%	85.1%	89.8%	56.4%	—	67.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	88.7%	91.2%	85.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	85.3%	88.9%	90.2%	61.5%	—	73.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	86.0%	90.0%	85.4%	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	87.7%	88.7%	89.7%	67.0%	—	76.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	88.9%	96.2%	92.0%	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	89.6%	97.9%	93.4%	74.5%	71.8%	77.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	89.8%	—	91.3%	0.0%	—	75.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	99%	72.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	98%	73.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	92%	72.0°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	79%	66.6°F	3.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	71%	66.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	70%	66.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261022-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 64°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗