WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KRIC / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 15 · 10:52 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
58%
WN2
54%
AIFS
26%
ICON
20%
HRES
12%
Consensus
38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 35.0¢Risks 35.05u
VS
HRESNO 65.0¢Risks 64.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +64.95u · HRES −64.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 26.1% · 2026-10-15T07:49:06+00:00AIFS Single: 26.1% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00AIFS Single: 26.1% · 2026-10-15T09:21:36+00:00AIFS Single: 26.1% · 2026-10-15T10:07:21+00:00AIFS Single: 26.1% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.9% · 2026-10-15T07:49:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.9% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.9% · 2026-10-15T09:21:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.9% · 2026-10-15T10:07:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.9% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.4% · 2026-10-15T07:49:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.4% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.4% · 2026-10-15T09:21:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.4% · 2026-10-15T10:07:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.4% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00IFS HRES: 12.2% · 2026-10-15T07:49:06+00:00IFS HRES: 12.2% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00IFS HRES: 12.2% · 2026-10-15T09:21:36+00:00IFS HRES: 12.2% · 2026-10-15T10:07:21+00:00IFS HRES: 12.2% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00ICON: 19.9% · 2026-10-15T07:49:06+00:00ICON: 19.9% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00ICON: 19.9% · 2026-10-15T09:21:36+00:00ICON: 19.9% · 2026-10-15T10:07:21+00:00ICON: 19.9% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:0010-15 07:4910-15 09:2110-15 10:52
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T07:49:06+00:0026.1%57.9%54.4%12.2%19.9%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:0026.1%57.9%54.4%12.2%19.9%
2026-10-15T09:21:36+00:0026.1%57.9%54.4%12.2%19.9%
2026-10-15T10:07:21+00:0026.1%57.9%54.4%12.2%19.9%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:0026.1%57.9%54.4%12.2%19.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble58%71.3°F4.0°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
National Blend55%71.0°F4.4°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 254%71.1°F5.4°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending
AIFS Single26%66.9°F5.6°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
ICON20%62.1°F9.9°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS HRES12%63.1°F6.3°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261022-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 71°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗