KRIC / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 15 · 10:52 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

54%

26%

20%

12%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 35.0¢Risks 35.05u

HRESNO 65.0¢Risks 64.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +64.95u · HRES −64.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	—	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	82.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	57.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	70.6%	—	79.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	82.8%	—	—	47.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	69.0%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	59.7%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	57.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	1.4%	28.8%	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	38.2%	29.8%	1.8%	—	24.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	4.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	56.6%	0.6%	17.0%	—	6.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	19.5%	1.0%	21.1%	—	9.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	6.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	40.5%	16.4%	18.4%	—	10.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	43.5%	2.6%	23.7%	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	39.3%	28.6%	32.2%	14.8%	—	11.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	42.4%	20.1%	21.4%	—	—	14.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	42.2%	36.3%	31.4%	17.8%	—	12.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	31.0%	41.1%	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	28.2%	36.4%	7.3%	—	11.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	37.9%	26.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	31.3%	33.9%	7.9%	—	14.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	31.7%	24.1%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	25.9%	27.6%	29.4%	8.6%	—	13.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	46.8%	32.6%	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	54.4%	34.1%	10.4%	9.0%	11.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	26.7%	0.0%	—	9.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	58%	71.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	71.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	54%	71.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	26%	66.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	20%	62.1°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	63.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261022-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 71°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗