KRIC / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST—Time unavailable

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

Two model forecasts are needed to illustrate an opposing contract.

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

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Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	96.7%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	87.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	86.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	88.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	92.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	97.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	86.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	—	—	—	88.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	97.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	89.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	55.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	68.1%	—	—	85.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	98.7%	—	71.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	95.4%	—	90.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	8.1%	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	78.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	4.6%	—	—	78.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	69.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	78.7%	27.7%	68.2%	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	64.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	43.7%	87.0%	9.9%	—	72.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	73.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	80.1%	71.5%	65.7%	—	53.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	70.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	71.1%	33.7%	71.7%	50.0%	—	50.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	65.2%	—	72.8%	—	—	45.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	71.9%	54.8%	72.6%	39.7%	—	45.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	7.3%	63.6%	—	—	35.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	41.7%	79.3%	50.8%	—	36.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	33.4%	77.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	69.3%	22.8%	76.6%	41.3%	—	22.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	44.6%	18.4%	72.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	14.9%	69.5%	26.6%	—	10.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	53.8%	26.9%	74.7%	—	—	15.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	60.6%	32.1%	66.1%	33.9%	62.4%	17.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	59.9%	—	64.7%	—	—	15.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261023-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 64°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗