KRIC / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

68%

54%

16%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 45.7¢Risks 45.70u

HRESNO 54.3¢Risks 54.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +54.30u · HRES −54.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:30:25+00:00	76.6%	57.2%	88.8%	17.6%	48.0%
2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:00	76.6%	57.2%	86.8%	17.6%	48.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	76.6%	57.2%	86.8%	17.6%	48.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	76.6%	57.2%	86.8%	17.6%	48.0%
2026-10-19T07:32:41+00:00	80.8%	57.2%	86.8%	15.9%	22.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	80.8%	57.2%	86.8%	15.9%	22.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	80.8%	57.2%	86.8%	15.9%	22.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00	80.8%	57.2%	86.8%	15.9%	22.4%
2026-10-19T10:34:59+00:00	80.8%	57.2%	86.8%	15.9%	22.4%
2026-10-19T11:20:40+00:00	80.8%	54.1%	94.0%	15.9%	22.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00	80.8%	54.1%	94.0%	15.9%	22.4%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	80.8%	54.1%	94.0%	15.9%	22.4%
2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00	60.3%	54.1%	94.0%	15.9%	22.4%
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00	60.3%	54.1%	94.1%	15.9%	22.4%
2026-10-19T15:13:18+00:00	60.3%	54.3%	94.1%	15.9%	22.4%
2026-10-19T15:59:06+00:00	60.3%	54.3%	94.1%	15.9%	22.4%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	60.3%	54.3%	94.1%	15.9%	22.4%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	60.3%	54.3%	85.3%	15.9%	22.4%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	60.3%	54.3%	85.3%	15.9%	22.4%
2026-10-19T18:59:50+00:00	60.3%	54.3%	85.3%	15.9%	22.4%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	60.3%	54.3%	85.3%	8.1%	16.2%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	60.3%	54.3%	85.3%	8.1%	16.2%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	60.3%	54.3%	85.3%	8.1%	16.2%
2026-10-19T22:00:58+00:00	60.3%	54.3%	85.3%	8.1%	16.2%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	60.3%	54.3%	85.3%	8.1%	16.2%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	60.3%	54.3%	83.3%	8.1%	16.2%
2026-10-20T00:16:42+00:00	60.3%	54.3%	83.3%	8.1%	16.2%
2026-10-20T01:02:35+00:00	60.3%	54.3%	83.3%	8.1%	16.2%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	68.5%	54.3%	83.3%	8.1%	16.2%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	68.5%	54.3%	83.3%	8.1%	16.2%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	68.5%	54.3%	83.3%	8.1%	16.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	83%	69.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	68%	67.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	65.8°F	2.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	65.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	16%	60.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	58.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261023-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 66°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗