KRIC / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

68%

54%

16%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 45.7¢Risks 45.70u

HRESNO 54.3¢Risks 54.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +54.30u · HRES −54.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	87.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	93.3%	—	—	—	—	80.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	96.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	—	—	—	81.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	97.6%	—	—	—	—	83.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	44.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	57.0%	—	—	77.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	97.2%	—	60.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	72.9%	—	—	—	—	63.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	91.6%	—	84.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	79.4%	—	4.3%	—	—	71.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	95.8%	—	67.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	2.2%	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	57.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	67.6%	17.6%	55.4%	—	—	43.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	30.5%	78.1%	5.1%	—	59.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	60.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	68.3%	58.0%	51.5%	—	39.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	56.8%	21.1%	57.6%	35.1%	—	35.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	58.5%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	57.1%	39.0%	57.9%	25.5%	—	30.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	45.9%	3.1%	47.5%	—	—	21.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	26.5%	65.5%	34.5%	—	21.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	48.3%	19.6%	62.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	52.6%	11.8%	61.3%	25.5%	—	11.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	8.8%	55.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	26.6%	6.6%	51.8%	13.9%	—	4.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	35.2%	13.7%	57.5%	—	—	6.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	17.1%	47.1%	18.3%	43.2%	7.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	45.0%	—	—	6.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	83%	69.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	68%	67.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	65.8°F	2.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	65.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	16%	60.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	58.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261023-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 66°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗