KRIC / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

63%

35%

34%

10%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 43.4¢Risks 43.40u

HRESNO 56.6¢Risks 56.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +56.60u · HRES −56.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:41:06+00:00	25.4%	40.8%	88.0%	49.4%	48.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00	25.4%	40.8%	85.5%	49.4%	48.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	25.4%	40.8%	85.5%	49.4%	48.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	25.4%	40.8%	85.5%	49.4%	48.8%
2026-10-17T07:44:02+00:00	31.5%	40.8%	85.5%	36.9%	72.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	31.5%	40.8%	85.5%	36.9%	72.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00	31.5%	40.8%	85.5%	36.9%	72.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	31.5%	40.8%	85.5%	36.9%	72.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	31.5%	40.8%	85.5%	36.9%	72.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	31.5%	38.9%	78.6%	36.9%	72.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	31.5%	38.9%	78.6%	36.9%	72.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	31.5%	38.9%	78.6%	36.9%	72.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00	71.7%	38.9%	78.6%	37.1%	72.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	71.7%	39.0%	78.5%	36.9%	72.6%
2026-10-18T04:13:45+00:00	63.7%	41.9%	60.9%	24.3%	36.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	63.7%	41.9%	76.0%	24.3%	36.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	63.7%	41.9%	76.0%	24.3%	36.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	63.7%	41.9%	76.0%	24.3%	36.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	63.7%	41.9%	76.0%	24.3%	36.3%
2026-10-18T08:00:54+00:00	70.7%	41.9%	76.0%	8.1%	45.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	70.7%	41.9%	76.0%	8.1%	45.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	70.7%	41.9%	76.0%	8.1%	45.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	70.7%	41.9%	76.0%	8.1%	45.4%
2026-10-18T11:02:35+00:00	70.7%	44.3%	76.0%	8.1%	45.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	70.7%	44.3%	76.0%	8.1%	45.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	70.7%	44.3%	76.0%	8.1%	45.4%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	70.7%	44.3%	76.0%	8.1%	45.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	60.4%	44.3%	76.0%	8.1%	45.4%
2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:00	60.4%	44.3%	76.0%	8.1%	45.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	60.4%	33.6%	76.0%	8.1%	45.4%
2026-10-18T16:26:48+00:00	60.4%	33.6%	76.0%	8.1%	45.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	60.4%	33.6%	74.4%	8.1%	45.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:17+00:00	60.4%	33.6%	74.4%	8.1%	45.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	60.4%	33.6%	74.4%	8.1%	45.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00	63.4%	33.6%	74.4%	10.1%	35.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	63.4%	33.6%	74.4%	10.1%	35.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	63.4%	33.6%	74.4%	10.1%	35.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	63.4%	33.6%	74.4%	10.1%	35.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	63.4%	33.6%	74.4%	10.1%	35.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:38+00:00	63.4%	33.6%	76.7%	10.1%	35.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	63.4%	33.6%	76.7%	10.1%	35.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	63.4%	33.6%	76.7%	10.1%	35.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:29+00:00	62.7%	33.6%	76.7%	10.1%	35.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:43+00:00	62.7%	33.6%	76.7%	10.1%	35.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:53+00:00	62.7%	33.6%	76.7%	10.1%	35.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	62.7%	33.6%	76.7%	10.1%	35.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	77%	70.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	69.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	67.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	35%	65.2°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	34%	66.1°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	60.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261023-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 68°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗