KRIC / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

63%

35%

34%

10%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 43.4¢Risks 43.40u

HRESNO 56.6¢Risks 56.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +56.60u · HRES −56.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	89.1%	—	—	—	—	72.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	73.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	92.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	—	—	—	75.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	33.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	45.3%	—	—	68.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	48.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	—	—	—	51.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	75.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	2.1%	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	1.0%	—	—	55.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	54.7%	10.2%	41.9%	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	37.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	19.4%	66.4%	2.3%	—	45.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	54.4%	43.4%	37.1%	—	26.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	41.7%	11.8%	42.4%	22.2%	—	22.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	43.0%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	24.8%	42.1%	14.5%	—	17.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	30.4%	1.2%	31.9%	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	14.8%	49.2%	20.7%	—	11.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	31.9%	9.9%	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	5.2%	43.9%	13.6%	—	5.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	3.6%	37.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	2.5%	33.9%	6.1%	—	1.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	5.9%	38.8%	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	7.5%	28.7%	8.2%	25.5%	2.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	26.5%	—	—	2.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	77%	70.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	69.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	67.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	35%	65.2°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	34%	66.1°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	60.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261023-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 68°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗