KRIC / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

53%

32%

31%

20%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 38.2¢Risks 38.20u

HRESNO 61.8¢Risks 61.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +61.80u · HRES −61.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:04+00:00	21.0%	32.5%	87.3%	22.3%	34.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:40+00:00	21.2%	32.5%	87.2%	22.4%	34.8%
2026-10-16T15:05:13+00:00	21.2%	32.1%	87.2%	22.4%	34.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	21.2%	32.1%	87.2%	22.4%	34.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:07+00:00	21.2%	32.1%	87.2%	22.4%	34.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	21.2%	32.1%	89.5%	22.4%	34.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	21.2%	32.1%	89.5%	22.4%	34.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	21.2%	32.1%	89.5%	22.4%	34.8%
2026-10-16T19:36:53+00:00	15.2%	32.1%	89.5%	22.4%	44.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	15.2%	32.1%	89.5%	22.4%	44.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	15.2%	32.1%	89.5%	22.4%	44.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	15.2%	32.1%	89.5%	22.4%	44.8%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	15.2%	32.1%	89.5%	43.2%	44.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:20+00:00	15.2%	32.1%	83.7%	43.2%	44.8%
2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00	15.2%	32.1%	83.7%	43.2%	44.8%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	15.2%	32.1%	83.7%	43.2%	44.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	20.2%	32.1%	83.7%	43.2%	44.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	20.2%	32.1%	83.7%	43.2%	44.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	20.2%	32.1%	83.7%	43.2%	44.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	20.2%	32.1%	83.7%	43.2%	44.8%
2026-10-17T15:24:28+00:00	65.1%	32.2%	71.8%	31.4%	67.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	65.1%	32.2%	71.8%	31.4%	67.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	65.1%	32.2%	68.1%	31.4%	67.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	65.1%	32.2%	68.1%	31.4%	67.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	65.1%	32.2%	68.1%	31.4%	67.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	65.1%	32.2%	68.1%	31.4%	67.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	63.7%	32.2%	68.1%	19.8%	31.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:26+00:00	63.7%	32.2%	68.1%	19.8%	31.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	63.7%	32.2%	68.1%	19.8%	31.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	63.7%	32.2%	68.1%	19.8%	31.2%
2026-10-17T22:56:59+00:00	63.7%	32.2%	52.6%	19.8%	31.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	63.7%	32.2%	52.6%	19.8%	31.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	63.7%	32.2%	52.6%	19.8%	31.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:50+00:00	63.7%	32.2%	52.6%	19.8%	31.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	56.6%	32.2%	52.6%	19.8%	31.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	56.6%	32.2%	52.6%	19.8%	31.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	56.6%	32.2%	52.6%	19.8%	31.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	57%	69.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	69.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	68.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	32%	66.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	31%	65.0°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	62.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261023-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 69°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗