KRIC / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

53%

32%

31%

20%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 38.2¢Risks 38.20u

HRESNO 61.8¢Risks 61.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +61.80u · HRES −61.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	86.4%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	69.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	90.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	94.0%	—	—	—	—	71.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	85.5%	—	28.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	39.6%	—	—	62.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	70.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	1.4%	—	—	53.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	89.4%	—	49.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	0.6%	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	37.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	48.0%	7.5%	35.5%	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	30.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	14.9%	59.7%	1.5%	—	38.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	39.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	47.1%	36.4%	30.4%	—	20.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	34.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	34.4%	8.4%	35.1%	16.9%	—	16.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	35.5%	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	18.9%	34.5%	10.4%	—	13.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	23.7%	0.7%	25.0%	—	—	8.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	25.8%	10.4%	40.9%	15.2%	—	8.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	24.6%	6.7%	37.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	3.2%	35.4%	9.4%	—	3.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	2.1%	29.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	9.4%	1.4%	25.9%	3.8%	—	0.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	3.6%	30.1%	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	4.6%	21.0%	5.1%	18.3%	1.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	19.0%	—	—	1.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	57%	69.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	69.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	68.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	32%	66.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	31%	65.0°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	62.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261023-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 69°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗