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KRIC / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≤ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
14%
EPS
9%
ICON
3%
AIFS
1%
WN2
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 6.9¢Risks 3.43u
VS
WN2NO 93.2¢Risks 46.58u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +46.58u · WN2 −46.58u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-20T10:53:05+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 8.7% · 2026-10-20T10:53:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 8.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 8.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 8.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 8.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00IFS HRES: 13.6% · 2026-10-20T10:53:05+00:00IFS HRES: 13.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00IFS HRES: 13.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS HRES: 13.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00IFS HRES: 13.5% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00ICON: 2.9% · 2026-10-20T10:53:05+00:00ICON: 2.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00ICON: 2.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00ICON: 2.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00ICON: 2.9% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:0010-20 10:5310-20 12:2410-20 13:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:53:05+00:001.4%8.7%0.2%13.6%2.9%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:001.4%8.7%0.2%13.6%2.9%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:001.4%8.7%0.2%13.6%2.9%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:001.4%8.7%0.2%13.6%2.9%
2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:001.4%8.7%0.2%13.5%2.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES14%63.0°F5.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble9%63.0°F4.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast7%64.0°F4.5°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
National Blend5%65.0°F4.5°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON3%66.7°F4.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single1%67.6°F4.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 2<1%68.4°F3.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 57°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261024-TMAX-LE57
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Richmond stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 57°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗