KRIC / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≤ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

14%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 6.9¢Risks 3.43u

WN2NO 93.2¢Risks 46.58u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +46.58u · WN2 −46.58u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	67.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	38.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	39.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	—	—	—	6.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	43.9%	—	6.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	23.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	9.0%	—	—	11.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	12.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	70.0%	54.0%	10.2%	—	—	21.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	50.7%	65.1%	3.6%	45.1%	—	24.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	7.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	21.0%	45.6%	5.3%	21.5%	—	26.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	14.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	21.1%	18.4%	6.5%	4.6%	—	20.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	9.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	18.4%	8.1%	26.8%	—	26.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	10.6%	99.2%	8.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	18.4%	7.7%	12.5%	—	36.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	17.8%	8.5%	—	—	99.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	5.0%	3.8%	5.7%	1.1%	19.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	3.2%	—	—	20.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	14%	63.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	9%	63.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	65.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	3%	66.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	1%	67.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	68.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 57°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261024-TMAX-LE57
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Richmond stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 57°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗