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KRIC / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 19 · 10:34 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
78%
AIFS
76%
HRES
46%
EPS
22%
ICON
7%
Consensus
47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 42.2¢Risks 42.25u
VS
ICONNO 57.8¢Risks 57.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +57.75u · ICON −57.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 76.2% · 2026-10-19T07:32:41+00:00AIFS Single: 76.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00AIFS Single: 76.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00AIFS Single: 76.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00AIFS Single: 76.2% · 2026-10-19T10:34:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.0% · 2026-10-19T07:32:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.0% · 2026-10-19T10:34:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.8% · 2026-10-19T07:32:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.8% · 2026-10-19T10:34:59+00:00IFS HRES: 46.3% · 2026-10-19T07:32:41+00:00IFS HRES: 46.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00IFS HRES: 46.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00IFS HRES: 46.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00IFS HRES: 46.3% · 2026-10-19T10:34:59+00:00ICON: 6.7% · 2026-10-19T07:32:41+00:00ICON: 6.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00ICON: 6.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00ICON: 6.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00ICON: 6.7% · 2026-10-19T10:34:59+00:0010-19 07:3210-19 09:0410-19 10:34
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T10:34:59+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:32:41+00:0076.2%22.0%77.8%46.3%6.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:0076.2%22.0%77.8%46.3%6.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:0076.2%22.0%77.8%46.3%6.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:0076.2%22.0%77.8%46.3%6.7%
2026-10-19T10:34:59+00:0076.2%22.0%77.8%46.3%6.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 278%74.7°F5.5°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
AIFS Single76%74.6°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend55%71.0°F4.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES46%69.9°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble22%67.1°F4.4°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
ICON7%55.5°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261026-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗