KRIC / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 19 · 10:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

76%

46%

22%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 42.2¢Risks 42.25u

ICONNO 57.8¢Risks 57.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +57.75u · ICON −57.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	97.8%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	4.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	—	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	—	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	54.2%	—	—	20.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	52.5%	—	31.8%	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	49.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	0.6%	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	67.9%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	56.1%	0.0%	48.0%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	39.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	46.5%	33.0%	0.4%	—	26.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	46.4%	58.0%	54.4%	16.5%	39.2%	33.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	50.7%	—	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	78%	74.7°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	76%	74.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	71.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	69.9°F	6.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	22%	67.1°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	7%	55.5°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261026-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗