KRIC / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

65%

55%

34%

13%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 39.3¢Risks 39.30u

EPSNO 60.7¢Risks 60.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +60.70u · EPS −60.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—	29.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	17.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	39.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	42.2%	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	21.6%	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	36.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	0.2%	—	—	26.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	46.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	0.0%	34.8%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	27.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	33.0%	21.4%	0.1%	—	16.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	39.4%	—	36.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	43.4%	39.9%	9.0%	26.0%	21.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	36.1%	—	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	66%	74.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	65%	75.2°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	55%	73.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	72.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	69.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	13%	68.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261026-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗