KRIC / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

32%

19%

16%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 16.2¢Risks 16.25u

EPSNO 83.8¢Risks 83.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +83.75u · EPS −83.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:32:43+00:00	24.9%	0.5%	24.4%	9.1%	1.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	24.9%	0.5%	24.4%	9.1%	1.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	24.9%	0.5%	24.4%	9.1%	1.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00	24.9%	0.5%	24.4%	9.1%	1.1%
2026-10-19T10:34:59+00:00	24.9%	0.5%	24.4%	9.1%	1.1%
2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:00	24.9%	0.2%	18.4%	9.1%	1.1%
2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00	24.9%	0.2%	18.4%	9.1%	1.1%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	24.9%	0.2%	18.4%	9.1%	1.1%
2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00	22.2%	0.2%	18.4%	9.1%	1.1%
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00	22.2%	0.2%	18.4%	9.1%	1.1%
2026-10-19T15:13:18+00:00	22.2%	0.1%	18.4%	9.1%	1.1%
2026-10-19T15:59:06+00:00	22.2%	0.1%	18.4%	9.1%	1.1%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	22.2%	0.1%	18.4%	9.1%	1.1%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	22.2%	0.1%	29.8%	9.1%	1.1%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	22.2%	0.1%	29.8%	9.1%	1.1%
2026-10-19T18:59:50+00:00	22.2%	0.1%	29.8%	9.1%	1.1%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	23.2%	0.1%	29.8%	9.6%	34.9%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	23.2%	0.1%	29.8%	9.6%	34.9%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	23.2%	0.1%	29.8%	9.6%	34.9%
2026-10-19T22:00:58+00:00	23.2%	0.1%	29.8%	9.6%	34.9%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	23.2%	0.1%	29.8%	9.6%	34.9%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	23.2%	0.1%	25.9%	9.6%	34.9%
2026-10-20T00:16:42+00:00	23.2%	0.1%	25.9%	9.6%	34.9%
2026-10-20T01:02:35+00:00	23.2%	0.1%	25.9%	9.6%	34.9%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	22.7%	0.1%	25.9%	9.6%	34.9%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	22.7%	0.1%	25.9%	9.6%	34.9%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	22.7%	0.1%	25.9%	9.6%	34.9%
2026-10-20T04:04:03+00:00	22.7%	0.1%	25.9%	9.6%	34.9%
2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00	22.7%	0.1%	25.9%	9.6%	34.9%
2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00	22.7%	0.1%	21.1%	9.6%	34.9%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00	22.7%	0.1%	21.1%	9.6%	34.9%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	22.7%	0.1%	21.1%	9.6%	34.9%
2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00	16.3%	0.1%	21.1%	9.6%	32.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00	16.3%	0.1%	21.1%	9.6%	32.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:21+00:00	16.3%	0.1%	21.1%	9.6%	32.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	16.3%	0.1%	21.1%	9.6%	32.2%
2026-10-20T10:53:07+00:00	16.3%	0.3%	19.0%	9.1%	32.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00	16.3%	0.3%	19.0%	9.1%	32.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	16.3%	0.3%	19.0%	9.1%	32.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00	16.3%	0.3%	19.0%	9.1%	32.2%
2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00	16.3%	0.3%	19.0%	9.1%	32.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	32%	75.2°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	19%	74.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	17%	73.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	16%	73.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	9%	69.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	72.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	68.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261026-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Richmond runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗