KRIC / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 21 · 10:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

20%

16%

12%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 10.2¢Risks 5.10u

EPSNO 89.8¢Risks 44.90u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +44.90u · EPS −44.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-21T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	5.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	13.3%	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	4.2%	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	9.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	14.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	0.0%	8.0%	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	5.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	6.7%	3.2%	0.0%	—	2.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	10.3%	8.7%	0.7%	4.1%	2.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	6.9%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	3.6%	6.5%	0.6%	—	2.2%
2026-10-20T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	5.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-21T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	5.9%	—	0.4%	—	1.2%
2026-10-21T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	0.0%	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-21T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	3.8%	3.0%	0.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	20%	73.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-21 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	16%	73.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	12%	72.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-21 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-21 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	68.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-21 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	68.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	70.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-21 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261026-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Richmond runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗