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KRIC / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
89%
WN2
76%
HRES
61%
EPS
39%
ICON
26%
Consensus
61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 57.6¢Risks 57.55u
VS
ICONNO 42.4¢Risks 42.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +42.45u · ICON −42.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 33.0% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.2% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 96.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 88.8% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.5% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 88.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 54.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.1% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 82.5% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.5% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 48.4% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.8% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 55.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 47.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 61.9% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.5% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.6% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.8% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.9% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 72.9% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 63.5% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 53.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 62.3% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.9% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 55.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 45.5% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 45.5% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 48.7% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 65.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 59.6% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 35.5% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 49.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 40.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 32.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 34.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 38.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 34.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 26.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 33.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 32.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 26.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 26.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 31.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 34.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010-12 06:0010-16 06:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSGEMIFS*
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0033.0%————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.2%———5.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0045.2%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0096.0%———49.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0088.8%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0031.6%———40.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0041.5%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0088.0%———32.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0054.2%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:005.8%———34.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0020.1%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0039.0%———38.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0082.5%————
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0046.3%———34.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0034.5%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0040.5%———26.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0048.4%————
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0025.2%———33.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0039.8%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0036.5%———32.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0055.0%————
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0047.2%———26.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0061.9%————
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0044.1%—53.5%—26.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0029.5%—62.3%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0014.0%———24.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:007.1%—6.9%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0013.5%—55.6%—27.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0015.6%—45.5%——
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0037.8%—45.5%—31.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0011.9%—48.7%——
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0072.9%3.2%65.2%35.5%34.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0063.5%—59.6%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single89%78.4°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 276%75.1°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES61%73.3°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend54%72.0°F5.5°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble39%70.5°F3.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON26%65.2°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261027-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 72°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗