KSAN / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 91°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

10%

10%

Consensus

10%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 6.3¢Risks 1.59u

EPSNO 93.7¢Risks 23.41u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +23.41u · EPS −23.41u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-10T22:28:14+00:00	28.3%	2.3%	12.8%	2.0%	74.6%
2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00	28.3%	2.3%	17.0%	2.0%	74.6%
2026-10-10T23:58:42+00:00	28.3%	2.3%	17.0%	2.0%	74.6%
2026-10-11T00:43:48+00:00	28.3%	2.3%	17.0%	2.0%	74.6%
2026-10-11T01:29:05+00:00	34.6%	2.3%	17.0%	2.0%	74.6%
2026-10-11T02:14:15+00:00	34.6%	2.3%	17.0%	2.0%	74.6%
2026-10-11T02:59:23+00:00	34.6%	2.3%	17.0%	2.0%	74.6%
2026-10-12T04:02:07+00:00	12.5%	0.1%	3.8%	7.4%	48.3%
2026-10-12T04:47:17+00:00	12.5%	0.1%	3.8%	7.4%	48.3%
2026-10-12T05:32:24+00:00	12.5%	0.1%	4.7%	7.4%	48.3%
2026-10-12T06:17:31+00:00	12.5%	0.1%	4.7%	7.4%	48.3%
2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00	12.5%	0.1%	4.7%	7.4%	48.3%
2026-10-12T07:49:11+00:00	10.3%	0.1%	4.7%	4.5%	55.4%
2026-10-12T08:34:34+00:00	10.3%	0.1%	4.7%	4.5%	55.4%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00	10.3%	0.1%	4.7%	4.5%	55.4%
2026-10-12T10:05:02+00:00	10.3%	0.1%	4.7%	4.5%	55.4%
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00	10.3%	0.1%	4.7%	4.5%	55.4%
2026-10-12T11:35:42+00:00	10.3%	0.1%	2.2%	4.5%	55.4%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	10.3%	0.1%	2.2%	4.5%	55.4%
2026-10-12T13:06:00+00:00	10.3%	0.1%	2.2%	4.5%	55.4%
2026-10-12T13:51:11+00:00	13.1%	0.1%	2.2%	4.5%	55.4%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00	13.1%	0.1%	2.2%	4.5%	55.4%
2026-10-13T04:16:35+00:00	19.6%	0.1%	5.3%	8.8%	56.8%
2026-10-13T05:01:48+00:00	19.6%	0.1%	4.5%	8.8%	56.8%
2026-10-13T05:46:55+00:00	19.6%	0.1%	4.5%	8.8%	56.8%
2026-10-13T06:32:14+00:00	19.6%	0.1%	4.5%	8.8%	56.8%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	19.6%	0.1%	4.5%	8.8%	56.8%
2026-10-13T08:04:25+00:00	13.4%	0.1%	4.5%	1.8%	59.9%
2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00	13.4%	0.1%	4.5%	1.8%	59.9%
2026-10-13T09:34:48+00:00	13.4%	0.1%	4.5%	1.8%	59.9%
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00	13.4%	0.1%	4.5%	1.8%	59.9%
2026-10-13T11:05:28+00:00	13.4%	0.4%	2.8%	1.8%	59.9%
2026-10-13T11:50:44+00:00	13.4%	0.4%	2.8%	1.8%	59.9%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	13.4%	0.4%	2.8%	1.8%	59.9%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	13.4%	0.4%	2.8%	1.8%	59.9%
2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00	15.3%	0.4%	2.8%	1.8%	59.8%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	15.3%	0.4%	2.8%	1.8%	59.8%
2026-10-15T15:34:45+00:00	15.7%	1.1%	7.8%	1.0%	44.4%
2026-10-15T16:20:17+00:00	15.7%	1.1%	7.8%	1.0%	44.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:26+00:00	15.7%	1.1%	6.1%	1.0%	44.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	15.7%	1.1%	6.1%	1.0%	44.4%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	15.7%	1.1%	6.1%	1.0%	44.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	15.7%	1.1%	6.1%	1.0%	44.4%
2026-10-15T20:06:24+00:00	11.4%	1.1%	6.1%	1.0%	6.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:39+00:00	11.4%	1.1%	6.1%	1.0%	6.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	11.4%	1.1%	6.1%	1.0%	6.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	11.4%	1.1%	6.1%	1.0%	6.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	11.4%	1.1%	4.7%	1.0%	6.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	11.4%	1.1%	4.7%	1.0%	6.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	11.4%	1.1%	4.7%	1.0%	6.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:54+00:00	12.4%	1.1%	4.7%	1.0%	6.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	12.4%	1.1%	4.7%	1.0%	6.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	12.4%	1.1%	4.7%	1.0%	6.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00	12.4%	1.1%	4.7%	1.0%	6.4%
2026-10-17T04:42:39+00:00	10.3%	2.4%	6.1%	7.0%	10.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00	10.3%	2.4%	5.3%	7.0%	10.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	10.3%	2.4%	5.3%	7.0%	10.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	10.3%	2.4%	5.3%	7.0%	10.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	91.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.3528
National Blend	23%	88.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0520
AIFS Single	10%	85.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0106
ICON	10%	86.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0102
IFS HRES	7%	85.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0049
WeatherNext 2	5%	85.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0028
IFS Ensemble	2%	84.1°F	3.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0006

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261017-TMAX-GE91
Opened Oct 10 · 22:28 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 91°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗