KSAN / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 91°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

10%

10%

Consensus

10%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 6.3¢Risks 1.59u

EPSNO 93.7¢Risks 23.41u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +23.41u · EPS −23.41u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	42.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.2%	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	8.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	52.5%	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	28.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	66.4%	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	4.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	58.1%	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	45.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	9.9%	63.8%	60.4%	3.9%	—	0.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	59.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	65.0%	3.8%	—	1.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	53.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	23.4%	46.2%	24.5%	—	1.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	35.9%	30.1%	28.1%	—	0.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	34.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	36.9%	16.8%	32.2%	—	1.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	15.7%	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	46.5%	26.9%	37.9%	—	0.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	48.2%	31.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	47.2%	24.4%	38.2%	—	0.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	33.5%	19.0%	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	32.1%	24.7%	51.9%	—	0.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	25.7%	24.1%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	14.5%	14.5%	52.1%	—	0.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	38.5%	8.0%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	47.8%	13.1%	66.9%	0.2%	0.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	14.1%	11.8%	1.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	6.8%	11.6%	7.6%	—	0.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	27.3%	6.6%	3.5%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	18.2%	11.2%	6.7%	1.1%	0.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	24.8%	5.3%	6.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	14.1%	14.1%	0.9%	0.2%	0.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	5.0%	3.2%	1.8%	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	12.2%	6.8%	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	12.8%	7.0%	0.9%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.5%	5.2%	21.4%	1.1%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	7.3%	21.6%	9.2%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	91.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.3528
National Blend	23%	88.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0520
AIFS Single	10%	85.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0106
ICON	10%	86.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0102
IFS HRES	7%	85.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0049
WeatherNext 2	5%	85.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0028
IFS Ensemble	2%	84.1°F	3.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0006

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261017-TMAX-GE91
Opened Oct 10 · 22:28 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 91°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗