KSAN / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 87°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

30%

16%

15%

Consensus

10%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 15.7¢Risks 15.65u

HRESNO 84.4¢Risks 84.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +84.35u · HRES −84.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T15:27:51+00:00	28.6%	5.0%	11.0%	14.0%	81.1%
2026-10-12T16:12:59+00:00	28.6%	4.4%	11.0%	14.0%	81.1%
2026-10-12T16:58:09+00:00	28.6%	4.4%	11.0%	14.0%	81.1%
2026-10-12T17:43:16+00:00	28.6%	4.4%	11.0%	14.0%	81.1%
2026-10-12T18:28:22+00:00	28.6%	4.4%	11.0%	14.0%	81.1%
2026-10-12T19:13:29+00:00	28.6%	4.4%	11.0%	14.0%	81.1%
2026-10-12T19:58:39+00:00	31.2%	4.4%	11.0%	22.8%	79.6%
2026-10-12T20:43:46+00:00	31.2%	4.4%	11.0%	22.8%	79.6%
2026-10-12T21:28:52+00:00	31.2%	4.4%	11.0%	22.8%	79.6%
2026-10-12T22:13:59+00:00	31.2%	4.4%	11.0%	22.8%	79.6%
2026-10-12T22:59:14+00:00	31.2%	4.4%	14.7%	22.8%	79.6%
2026-10-12T23:44:21+00:00	31.2%	4.4%	14.7%	22.8%	79.6%
2026-10-13T00:29:27+00:00	31.2%	4.4%	14.7%	22.8%	79.6%
2026-10-13T01:14:43+00:00	31.2%	4.4%	14.7%	22.8%	79.5%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	29.2%	4.4%	14.7%	22.8%	79.5%
2026-10-13T02:44:59+00:00	29.2%	4.4%	14.7%	22.8%	79.5%
2026-10-13T03:30:05+00:00	29.2%	4.4%	14.7%	22.8%	79.5%
2026-10-13T15:41:57+00:00	24.6%	7.8%	6.6%	6.8%	80.2%
2026-10-13T16:27:06+00:00	24.6%	7.8%	6.6%	7.1%	80.2%
2026-10-13T17:12:14+00:00	24.6%	7.8%	8.7%	7.1%	80.2%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	24.6%	7.8%	8.7%	7.1%	80.2%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	24.6%	7.8%	8.7%	7.1%	80.2%
2026-10-13T19:27:31+00:00	21.0%	7.8%	8.7%	7.1%	68.9%
2026-10-13T20:12:40+00:00	21.0%	7.8%	8.7%	7.1%	68.9%
2026-10-13T20:57:46+00:00	21.0%	7.8%	8.7%	7.1%	68.9%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	21.0%	7.8%	8.7%	7.1%	68.9%
2026-10-13T22:28:27+00:00	21.0%	7.8%	8.7%	9.7%	68.9%
2026-10-13T23:13:40+00:00	21.0%	7.8%	6.9%	9.4%	68.9%
2026-10-13T23:58:49+00:00	21.0%	7.8%	6.9%	9.4%	68.9%
2026-10-14T00:43:56+00:00	21.0%	7.8%	6.9%	9.4%	68.9%
2026-10-14T01:29:15+00:00	24.0%	7.8%	6.9%	9.4%	68.9%
2026-10-14T02:14:22+00:00	24.0%	7.8%	6.9%	9.4%	68.9%
2026-10-15T15:34:45+00:00	14.7%	13.1%	7.7%	4.0%	73.6%
2026-10-15T16:20:17+00:00	14.7%	13.1%	7.7%	4.0%	73.6%
2026-10-15T17:05:26+00:00	14.7%	13.1%	4.3%	4.0%	73.6%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	14.7%	13.1%	4.3%	4.0%	73.6%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	14.7%	13.1%	4.3%	4.0%	73.6%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	14.7%	13.1%	4.3%	4.0%	73.6%
2026-10-15T20:06:24+00:00	14.7%	13.1%	4.3%	4.0%	45.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:39+00:00	14.7%	13.1%	4.3%	4.0%	45.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	14.7%	13.1%	4.3%	4.0%	45.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:56+00:00	14.7%	13.1%	4.3%	4.0%	45.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	14.7%	13.1%	5.1%	4.0%	45.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	14.7%	13.1%	5.1%	4.0%	45.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	14.7%	13.1%	5.1%	4.0%	45.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:54+00:00	14.7%	13.1%	5.1%	4.0%	45.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	14.7%	13.1%	5.1%	4.0%	45.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	14.7%	13.1%	5.1%	4.0%	45.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00	14.7%	13.1%	5.1%	4.0%	45.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:50+00:00	14.0%	18.0%	5.3%	2.9%	44.4%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	14.0%	18.0%	5.3%	2.9%	44.4%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	14.0%	18.0%	5.3%	2.9%	44.4%
2026-10-16T17:21:33+00:00	14.0%	18.0%	6.1%	2.9%	44.4%
2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00	14.0%	18.0%	6.1%	2.9%	44.4%
2026-10-16T18:51:47+00:00	14.0%	18.0%	6.1%	2.9%	44.4%
2026-10-16T19:37:18+00:00	14.0%	18.0%	6.1%	2.9%	42.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	14.0%	18.0%	6.1%	2.9%	42.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	14.0%	18.0%	6.1%	2.9%	42.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	14.0%	18.0%	6.1%	2.9%	42.2%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	14.0%	18.0%	6.1%	4.2%	42.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	14.0%	18.0%	3.5%	4.2%	42.2%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	14.0%	18.0%	3.5%	4.2%	42.2%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	14.0%	18.0%	3.5%	4.2%	42.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	14.0%	18.0%	3.5%	4.2%	42.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	14.0%	18.0%	3.5%	4.2%	42.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:32+00:00	14.0%	18.0%	3.5%	4.2%	42.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	14.0%	18.0%	3.5%	4.2%	42.2%
2026-10-17T15:25:20+00:00	13.2%	14.8%	3.4%	1.0%	34.5%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	13.2%	14.8%	3.4%	1.0%	34.5%
2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00	13.2%	14.8%	1.5%	1.0%	34.5%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	13.2%	14.8%	1.5%	1.0%	34.5%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	13.2%	14.8%	1.5%	1.0%	34.5%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	13.2%	14.8%	1.5%	1.0%	34.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:20+00:00	19.4%	14.8%	1.5%	1.8%	29.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	19.4%	14.8%	1.5%	1.8%	29.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	19.4%	14.8%	1.5%	1.8%	29.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	19.4%	14.8%	1.5%	1.8%	29.5%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	19.4%	14.8%	5.0%	1.8%	29.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	19.4%	14.8%	5.0%	1.8%	29.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	19.4%	14.8%	5.0%	1.8%	29.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00	19.4%	14.8%	5.0%	1.8%	29.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00	16.1%	14.8%	5.0%	1.8%	29.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	16.1%	14.8%	5.0%	1.8%	29.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	16.1%	14.8%	5.0%	1.8%	29.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	87.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.3181
ICON	30%	84.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0870
AIFS Single	16%	82.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0259
IFS Ensemble	15%	82.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0219
National Blend	13%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0164
WeatherNext 2	5%	81.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0025
IFS HRES	2%	78.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0003

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261018-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 12 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 87°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗