KSAN / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 87°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

30%

16%

15%

Consensus

10%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 15.7¢Risks 15.65u

HRESNO 84.4¢Risks 84.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +84.35u · HRES −84.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—	6.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	8.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	27.2%	—	—	5.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	54.4%	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	66.4%	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	67.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	62.6%	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	54.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	68.3%	48.6%	4.9%	—	3.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	36.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	69.0%	28.5%	58.0%	—	2.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	67.0%	33.7%	46.9%	—	2.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	34.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	68.4%	13.1%	51.6%	—	2.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	31.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	52.5%	40.9%	55.8%	—	1.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	19.0%	39.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	56.1%	29.9%	65.4%	—	1.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	53.6%	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	43.6%	48.2%	43.6%	—	0.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	58.5%	37.9%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	67.0%	39.4%	76.0%	—	0.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	56.0%	33.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	37.8%	30.3%	58.2%	—	0.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	51.1%	20.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	47.8%	11.4%	37.1%	—	0.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	41.0%	12.9%	0.3%	—	0.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	45.4%	22.4%	23.3%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	48.8%	16.0%	19.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	48.8%	9.5%	5.5%	2.1%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	47.4%	12.8%	12.8%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	42.0%	10.7%	19.1%	3.2%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	32.5%	13.9%	24.2%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	38.6%	19.1%	19.1%	1.3%	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	44.0%	16.2%	16.2%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	26.3%	12.5%	7.7%	0.8%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	26.7%	9.9%	12.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	87.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.3181
ICON	30%	84.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0870
AIFS Single	16%	82.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0259
IFS Ensemble	15%	82.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0219
National Blend	13%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0164
WeatherNext 2	5%	81.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0025
IFS HRES	2%	78.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0003

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261018-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 12 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 87°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗