KSAN / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

61%

51%

28%

24%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 47.9¢Risks 47.85u

WN2NO 52.2¢Risks 52.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +52.15u · WN2 −52.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T15:05:50+00:00	42.6%	75.4%	29.7%	25.8%	72.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	42.6%	75.5%	29.7%	25.8%	72.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	42.6%	75.5%	29.7%	25.8%	72.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:33+00:00	42.6%	75.5%	29.7%	25.8%	72.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00	42.6%	75.5%	29.7%	25.8%	72.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:47+00:00	42.6%	75.5%	29.7%	25.8%	72.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:18+00:00	43.5%	75.5%	29.7%	25.8%	65.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	43.5%	75.5%	29.7%	25.8%	65.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	43.5%	75.5%	29.7%	25.8%	65.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	43.5%	75.5%	29.7%	25.8%	65.7%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	43.5%	75.5%	29.7%	25.8%	65.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	43.5%	75.5%	27.6%	25.8%	65.7%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	43.5%	75.5%	27.6%	25.8%	65.7%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	43.5%	75.5%	27.6%	25.8%	65.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	41.7%	75.5%	27.6%	25.8%	65.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	41.7%	75.5%	27.6%	25.8%	65.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:32+00:00	41.7%	75.5%	27.6%	25.8%	65.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	41.7%	75.5%	27.6%	25.8%	65.7%
2026-10-17T15:25:20+00:00	45.1%	68.0%	28.1%	16.5%	66.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	45.1%	68.0%	28.1%	16.5%	66.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00	45.1%	68.0%	25.9%	16.5%	66.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	45.1%	68.0%	25.9%	16.5%	66.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	45.1%	68.0%	25.9%	16.5%	66.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	45.1%	68.0%	25.9%	16.5%	66.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:20+00:00	50.0%	68.0%	25.9%	21.0%	66.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	50.0%	68.0%	25.9%	21.0%	66.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	50.0%	68.0%	25.9%	21.0%	66.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	50.0%	68.0%	25.9%	21.0%	66.4%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	50.0%	67.5%	21.9%	21.0%	66.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	50.0%	67.5%	21.9%	21.0%	66.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	50.0%	67.5%	21.9%	21.0%	66.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00	50.0%	67.5%	21.9%	21.0%	66.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00	52.0%	67.5%	21.9%	21.0%	66.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	52.0%	67.5%	21.9%	21.0%	66.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	52.0%	67.5%	21.9%	21.0%	66.4%
2026-10-18T04:14:58+00:00	52.0%	67.5%	21.9%	21.0%	66.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	52.0%	67.5%	28.1%	21.0%	66.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	52.0%	67.5%	28.1%	21.0%	66.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	52.0%	67.5%	28.1%	21.0%	66.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	52.0%	67.5%	28.1%	21.0%	66.4%
2026-10-18T08:01:57+00:00	55.0%	67.5%	28.1%	26.8%	63.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	55.0%	67.5%	28.1%	26.8%	63.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	55.0%	67.5%	28.1%	26.8%	63.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	55.0%	67.5%	28.1%	26.8%	63.3%
2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:00	55.0%	71.4%	40.5%	26.8%	63.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00	55.0%	71.4%	40.5%	26.8%	63.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00	55.0%	71.4%	40.5%	26.8%	63.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	55.0%	71.4%	40.5%	26.8%	63.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00	51.0%	71.1%	40.5%	26.8%	63.2%
2026-10-18T14:56:13+00:00	51.0%	71.1%	40.5%	26.8%	63.2%
2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00	51.0%	72.2%	40.5%	26.8%	63.2%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	51.0%	72.2%	40.5%	26.8%	63.2%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	51.0%	72.2%	25.7%	26.8%	63.2%
2026-10-18T17:57:38+00:00	51.0%	72.2%	25.7%	26.8%	63.2%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	51.0%	72.2%	25.7%	26.8%	63.2%
2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00	52.0%	72.2%	25.7%	27.7%	61.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:11+00:00	52.0%	72.2%	25.7%	27.7%	61.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	52.0%	72.2%	25.7%	27.7%	61.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	52.0%	72.2%	25.7%	27.7%	61.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	52.0%	72.2%	25.7%	27.7%	61.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:47+00:00	52.0%	72.2%	21.5%	27.7%	61.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	52.0%	72.2%	21.5%	27.7%	61.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	52.0%	72.2%	21.5%	27.7%	61.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:00	51.0%	72.2%	21.5%	27.7%	61.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	51.0%	72.2%	21.5%	27.7%	61.1%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	51.0%	72.2%	21.5%	27.7%	61.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00	51.0%	72.2%	21.5%	27.7%	61.1%
2026-10-19T04:31:35+00:00	51.0%	72.2%	21.5%	27.7%	61.1%
2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00	51.0%	72.2%	23.5%	27.7%	61.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00	51.0%	72.2%	23.5%	27.7%	61.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	51.0%	72.2%	23.5%	27.7%	61.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	91%	81.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	0.0081
IFS Ensemble	72%	81.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0773
ICON	61%	80.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.1513
NWS forecast	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	0.1681
AIFS Single	51%	79.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.2401
IFS HRES	28%	77.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.5227
WeatherNext 2	24%	77.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.5852

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261019-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗